My predictions from last year, plus those from 2007 and 2006.

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Quite an odd visual theme. Doesn’t really look like a Mac app at all.

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Chuq Von Rospach on the non-removable 17-inch MBP battery rumor.

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As required by the FCC, all Mac-related web sites must publish pre-Macworld Expo predictions regarding what Apple may announce at the show. Remember: these are predictions based on little more than my own speculation and tea-leaf reading, so hold your applause until the end, and, please, no wagering.

• New 17-Inch MacBook Pro — Seems like a sure thing. The lack of new 17-inch hardware was a glaring omission from October’s new MacBook line-up. Expect something that looks pretty much exactly like a bigger version of the new 15-inch MacBook Pro. Last-minute rumors claim that the new 17-inch MacBook Pro will have a sealed (non-user-replaceable) battery. Sounds odd, and if true, will surely generate complaints that it’s stupid move on Apple’s part, but given Apple’s recent penchant for sealed batteries, it wouldn’t surprise me.

• New Mac Mini — Yes. The current Mac Mini lineup is unchanged since August 2007, almost a year and a half ago. Overdue for an update, to say the least. I don’t think there’s any great enthusiasm for the Mac Mini at Apple, but it’s a strong seller.

• New 30-Inch Cinema Display — Yes. Much like with the 17-inch MacBook Pro, the existing 30-inch Cinema Display just looks old next to the new 24-inch model. As for a 20-inch model, I’m going to say no. 20-inch displays are the new 17-inch displays: too small.

• Speed Bump iMac Revisions — I’m not sure where the rumors started about there being significant changes to the iMac, but I expect what we’ll actually see will look the same as the current iMacs but offer slightly faster processors, slightly bigger hard drives, etc. Speed bump revisions don’t make for good demos, so while I expect updated iMacs this week, I don’t expect them to be announced during the keynote itself.

• iLife and iWork ’09 — Yes, nearly a sure thing. These suites are both profitable and popular, and the current ’08 suites were released in August 2007. They’re both due for updates, and they both make for good keynote demo material.

  At the top of my personal wish list: improvements to iMovie and Pages. I see the logic behind Apple’s decision to scrap the old iMovie and start over from the ground up with iMovie ’08. But I find iMovie ’08 downright confusing. The difference between “events” and “projects” seems muddled, and it’s a clumsy tool when it comes to actually editing clips together to make a movie. As for Pages, I would love to see it gain additional professional-caliber typographic controls (including better support for OpenType fonts).

• Snow Leopard — I expect a demo, and maybe a loose release date (like, say, “first half of 2009”). As Apple emphasized when Snow Leopard was announced at WWDC last year, Snow Leopard is mainly about low-level under-the-hood improvements and optimizations to Mac OS X, not about new user-visible features. But the new Exchange integration for Mail and iCal is certainly demo-able.

  What I expect is for Apple to make old features look new, by updating the system-wide appearance theme. I’ve made this prediction several times in the past and been wrong, but eventually I’ll be right: it’s time for the last vestiges of the original Mac OS X 10.0 “Aqua” theme to go. Scrollbars and push buttons, for example, remain largely unchanged since the Mac OS X public beta in 2000. My bet says iTunes-style scrollbars everywhere, darker window chrome, and a light-text-on-dark-background menu bar.

  (The name I’ve heard for the new theme: Marble. Make of that what you will.)

• Updated Apple TV — Yes. I expect new hardware, but probably nothing radically new other than increased storage space. But it’ll be in the keynote as a signal that Apple is serious about this market. There’s been a lot of supposedly expert speculation that Apple is going to abandon Apple TV because it’s not a hit. But while it’s not a hit, it’s not a failure, either, and, more importantly, there is no dominant player in this field, where by “this field” I mean that for consumer-level digital media management for the living room.

  I’m not going to say that Blu-ray is dead because it isn’t. But if DVD isn’t the last mainstream physical medium for home movie distribution, Blu-ray will be. The future, obviously and inevitably, is in downloads. I’m already there, and you, dear DF reader, probably are too, but for the mass market, downloadable movies for the living room remain in the future.

  The iPhone was an instant hit, but the iPod wasn’t. Apple grew the iPod from a Mac-only peripheral into a cultural sensation slowly but steadily over three or four years. I think they have a similar long-term plan for Apple TV. And in large part Apple — along with every other hardware maker — is hobbled by the limitations of what content the movie studios will allow them to distribute. The iTunes Store’s movie library has grown significantly over the past year, but it’s still far smaller than what your neighborhood video store has to offer. And while iTunes has high definition movies available to rent, the only movies you can buy are in standard definition. That’s a studio-imposed limitation, and it’s one that works in Blu-ray’s favor, and against Apple TV’s. (Wishful thinking on my part: I’d love for Apple to announce some Boxee-like features built-in as standard Apple TV features. The TV networks seem more willing to play ball with digital distribution than the movie studios, so, maybe.)

  There are rumors that Apple might release software that allows any Mac to serve as an Apple TV. I know nothing about such software, but if you think of it more as the unification of Front Row and Apple TV, it makes perfect sense. But I don’t expect Apple to abandon selling dedicated Apple TV hardware soon — even the cheapest Mac Mini costs a few hundred bucks more than an Apple TV.

• iPhone Nano — No. Frankly, I just don’t get these rumors. The only way this makes sense is if it’s a replacement for the iPhone 3G — i.e. a slightly smaller form factor for the existing iPhone 3G’s features. But why now, just six months after iPhone 3G debuted? The pattern seems to be for Apple to release new iPhone hardware every summer, much like how they’ve usually released new iPod hardware in the fall. (And why “nano” rather than “mini” for something that, according to the purported third-party case designs that the rumor is founded upon, is only a little bit smaller? With iPods, “nano” is used for models that are way smaller and thinner.)

• iPhone Tethering — No, but I would love to be wrong. The longer I use my iPhone, the more frustrating it feels that my MacBook doesn’t have the same sort of nearly-ubiquitous network access. I’m one of the lucky few to have scored a copy of NetShare during its brief availability on the App Store, and there are other solutions for jailbroken iPhones, but I want Apple-style integration. I can’t see any way that this could happen without having to pay an extra monthly fee to AT&T, but if the price is even just semi-reasonable, I’d pay it in a heartbeat.

• iPhone OS 3.0 Demo — My wildcard prediction, which, I will reiterate, is based on nothing more than my own speculation and wishful thinking. One thing I’m nearly certain of is that the next iPhone OS release will be 3.0, not 2.3, if for no other reason than that there have been no developer betas since the release of version 2.2. To my nose, that smells like a major release with significant new features is in the oven.

  I fully expect iPhone OS 3.0 to be announced and demoed at least a few months before it is released. Third-party developers need to time to adapt to any changes, add support for new features, and to bang away on beta releases to shake out the bugs. But assuming there will be significant new features, Apple will want to unveil them at a high-profile event. If I had to wager, I’d bet on a special event around March, much like last year’s event to unveil the iPhone SDK. But if it’s going to be ready for developer betas sooner than later, it’d be a nice surprise to see Phil Schiller call Scott Forstall on stage to demo it now.

  As for what might appear in iPhone OS 3.0, here’s my wish list. First, a new home screen app (a.k.a. SpringBoard), designed from the ground up for a system where users have a few dozen or more extra apps installed. Managing dozens of apps on the iPhone today is simply a pain in the ass. Second, maybe an answer to the question of where the background notification API is — you know, the one we were told at WWDC to expect a few months ago, but which we haven’t heard a word about since. And maybe — pretty please, Mr. Forstall, with sugar on top — copy and paste.

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Translation: If Jobs were terminally ill, or otherwise unable to do his job, Apple’s board would make it known.

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He’s suffering from a “hormone imbalance” that apparently wasn’t diagnosed until recently, and expects to regain his weight within a few months.

Good news and well-said. The closing paragraph is pure Jobs.

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Interesting argument from Sean Devine, that the current App Store balance, which tilts in favor of quantity over quality, works in Apple’s favor:

The KEY to maximizing iPhone profit is to create very high switching costs for users, just as they did for the iPod via the iTunes Music Store. Apple is using the App Store to create switching costs, and they know that if all of their users have “invested” in many little applications that will only work on the iPhone (a la songs from the iTunes Music Store), they will eventually have users locked in to a long-term investment in the iPhone franchise. The profit from the successful execution of the iPhone franchise strategy will dwarf any amount of profit that they could suboptimize if they focused on what was best for the iPhone application development community.

I can see how this might be the case, and the whole essay is worth a read. But, just playing devil’s advocate, I’d say the counter-argument is obvious: there is no stickiness with truly inconsequential apps. Are people really going to be less likely to switch to a phone other than the iPhone just because their fart joke apps won’t run on the new phone? The sweet spot is clearly somewhere between quantity and quality — not just many apps, but many apps that you feel like you can’t do without.

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William Safire on the difference between profanities, obscenities, expletives, and vulgarities, in the context of everyone’s favorite foul-mouthed Illinois governor.

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New app from Rogue Amoeba, lets you tune satellite radio from both XM and Sirius. You still need a (paid) account from XM or Sirius, but Pulsar works far better on the desktop than either of XM’s or Sirius’s official, clumsy, web-based clients. Pulsar works great with the XM account I have for my car.

Introductory price is just $15, and, even better, during this introductory period Rogue Amoeba is making Pulsar available for free for anyone with a license to any other Rogue Amoeba product.

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Mike Ash:

One extreme is that private APIs should never be used, period, full stop. They’re bad, don’t want to touch them, don’t even acknowledge that they exist. The other extreme is that they’re fine and dandy, use them like you’d use anything else.

As with most things, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. But where, exactly, and how do you determine if something is worth using?

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Free update to Flying Meat’s excellent up-and-coming $50 image editor. The big new feature is the all-new brush tool (and custom brush designer). Full release notes here.

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Steven Levy:

It’s the 25th anniversary of the Apple Macintosh, but Steve Jobs’ eyes are dry. At the company headquarters in Silicon Valley, where he was presenting a set of new laptops to the press last October, I mentioned the birthday to him. Jobs recoiled at any suggestion of nostalgia. “I don’t think about that,” he said. “When I got back here in 1997, I was looking for more room, and I found an archive of old Macs and other stuff. I said, ‘Get it away!’ and I shipped all that shit off to Stanford. If you look backward in this business, you’ll be crushed. You have to look forward.”

I think this attitude is one of the keys to Jobs’s long-term success.

(Via Chris Foresman.)

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Nicholas Jitkoff hints at Google Mobile’s secret “Bells and Whistles” settings panel. Useful — I actually like being able to open web pages within the app itself.

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Filed under: Macworld, Analysis / Opinion, Humor, Rumors

Even though Steve Jobs has opted out of giving the keynote at this year's Macworld Expo in San Francisco, and Apple will not be attending another Macworld after this one, there will still be a keynote presentation -- it will just be given by Phil Schiller instead. Of course, since the keynote must go on, even without Mr. Jobs, there will also be speculation and predictions as to what Apple will announce during the keynote.

We at TUAW are not immune to this phenomenon and even though we will be liveblogging the keynote to provide you with the news as soon as it's actually announced, that won't stop us from engaging in a favorite pastime of the tech press: Macworld Expo keynote predictions. Of course, when considering this event and the impending announcements, especially in light of this being the last time Apple will take part, these questions, and many others, come to mind.

Will Phil be as entertaining as Steve? How long will Phil talk about the success of iTunes and the iPod before moving on to the other more exciting announcements? Who will be the musical guest? Will Phil be wearing a black turtleneck and jeans or will he try to start a new fashion trend of his own? Will Phil and Apple do anything "special" to commemorate the last keynote? What will be the "one more thing"? And, most importantly, will Phil talk about where Steve Jobs is and why he isn't doing the keynote?

Your intrepid TUAW writers have considered those very questions, and many more, through long days and nights of deliberation, discussion and discourse. In so doing, we have come up with some interesting, perhaps even controversial, prognostications, pre-visualizations and predictions of what new products and services will be announced at this this year's keynote. Read on for all our (at least partly serious) expectations.

For full Macworld Expo coverage, bookmark the TUAW Macworld Expo 2009 landing page.

Continue reading TUAW Macworld 2009 Keynote Predictions

TUAWTUAW Macworld 2009 Keynote Predictions originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 21:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Software, Odds and ends, Internet Tools, Developer, iPhone

TUAWCraigsphone brings Craigslist to the iPhone originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 18:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Internet, Leopard

Microsoft's share of the operating system market is dropping, while Apple computers and handhelds have topped 10 percent for the first time, according to a new report on Internet-connected computers.

NetApplications, the company that tracks browser and operating system market share for a variety of sites across the Internet, released its data for December 2008. According to a Computerworld analysis, the number of Windows users decreased in December by 0.94 percent to 88.7 percent.

The fall was the steepest in four years since Net Applications began collecting data, and was also more than twice that of any similar period in the previous three years. The Computerworld article does note that December statistics do slant slightly towards the Mac due to the reduced number of in-office days for corporate users, but the overall shift is decidedly Mac-ward even once that's accounted for.

Apple's share is just over 10 percent, if one combines the market share for both Macs and iPhones. Macs account for 9.63 percent of computers online. (Windows Mobile devices are included in the 88.7 percent figure.)

Also of note, almost three quarters of Macs online have an Intel processor. This time last year, less than half had one. Overall, Mac OS X's share grew by 31.7 percent compared to a year ago.

Windows XP remains the operating system with the largest installed base, with over 65 percent of the market.

TUAWApple market share tops 10%, Windows share lowest since tracking began originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 17:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Macworld, TUAW Business

View Poll

TUAWWhat do you want to see TUAW cover at Macworld? originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Filed under: Freeware, iPhone

• Different theme colors to change the look of the app
• Changes to the sounds the app uses, including monkeys and chickens
• The addition of a live waveform when you are speaking -- kind of like an oscilloscope
  
• The option to open links in the app itself rather than transferring to Safari

TUAWGoogle iPhone app is the gift that keeps on giving originally appeared on The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW) on Fri, 02 Jan 2009 15:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Erica Sadun:

In order to unlock a 3G iPhone, you’ll need to upgrade your iPhone to baseband 02.28.00. This is the baseband that ships with the latest 2.2 firmware update from Apple. It’s also the baseband and update that the dev team (and we here at Ars) have been warning you not to upgrade to.

So now it’s Ars Technica policy to recommend that users not upgrade their iPhones until jailbreak experts say so? Great advice.

Update: They’ve edited the above-quoted paragraph, removing the “(and we here at Ars)” parenthetical.

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