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Milwaukee Bucks Blog - The Bob Boozer Jinx Dec 24, 2008 | 4:38 pm PST
Yes, they do have Christmas in Australia, but that doesn't mean Andrew Bogut has to like it. Bogut dispensed his views regarding Christmas on his blog Sunday, which happened to be the day of...
Yes, they do have Christmas in Australia, but that doesn't mean Andrew Bogut has to like it. Bogut dispensed his views regarding Christmas on his blog Sunday, which happened to be the day of the Winter Soltice:
"I’m not big on Christmas, Birthdays or New Years really. I think Christmas isn’t celebrated for the right reasons, but mainly for a money driving machine. A lot of children probably wouldn’t know what Christmas is about besides receiving cool presents and getting what ‘I’ want. I mean I don’t dislike it don’t get me wrong, but the whole decorating for Christmas and putting up a tree doesn’t really give me a thrill. I think I left it behind when I was about 12 and realized the truth about Santa and his Reindeers."
Don't get him wrong? Just about everything Bogut wrote is manifesto for those who think the Christmas magic left when Rudolph got busted for vagrancy. Maybe Bogues was in the locker room when the Energee! dancers were doing their Santa routine at the Bucks-Clippers game Saturday ....
There's more on Bogut's blog, about friends and family being more important than gifts, and plenty of Aussie comedy videos and other stuff he finds for his fans back home. It's really one of the better NBA player blogs out there, and he has a new post up already in which he reports that his dad feels the same way he does about X-mas. He also says that a "present we didn't expect" may be in the works this week to help the Bucks. (This turned out to be the arrival of exiled long range gunner Damon Jones, which I confess never crossed my mind as anything that would be considered a gift.)
I empathize with Bogut's negative feelings about X-mas, I do, but I've been imbued with enough holiday spirit this week to wonder what the Bucks might leave under the Christmas trees or 'round Hanukkah menorahs and Kwanzaa kinaras of Bucks fans everywhere. (A kinara's a candleholder, much like a menorah, and you wouldn't want to put gifts under either of those burning things).
Never let it be said that one can't find culture here ... or fire safety tips. But enough of that ... Let's get to those gifts ...
1) How about a win against a quality, winning opponent that isn't missing a key player or two? The Bucks don't have one of these wins this season. I give you Ball Don't Lie's NBA power rankings this week in which the Bucks were ranked 17th: "You beat the Clippers by a ton, at home. I'm ... proud of you?" Oh, the truth hurts. ... So Tuesday night vs. the 17-12 Jazz was a great opportunity to beat a solid, winning team on the home court, right? Wrooong. The Jazz's hottest player, center Mehmet Okur, scratched with back spasms. Despite this fit of good fortune, the cold-shooting Bucks and Michael Redd nearly bricked their way out of the game until some solid Bucks D and point guard Luke Ridnour saved the day. After the game, Jazz coach Jerry Sloan said his team looked like they were playing "streetball."
A relatively healthy 15-11 Detroit team, with Antonio McDyess back in the fold, comes to the BC Saturday and the Bucks have three days off before the game. Allen Iverson is day-to-day with an injury suffered Tuesday against the Bulls but that's fine -- Iverson often plays better when he's hurt, as Bucks fans know too well (I'm supressing 2001 playoff flashbacks now). Detroit is 11-11, including a win vs. the Bucks in Detroit, since trading Chauncey Billups to Denver for the Answer. The AI record should be 12-11 after the Pistons play the OK City Thunder on Friday. Beating Detroit would qualify as the Bucks best win of the season.
2) A bottle of Andrew Bogut's "magic pain pills." Bogut goes into excruciating detail on his blog about his ailing back and the "magic pain pills" that have allowed him to play the last four games. Seems a couple of his vertabrae are "stuck" and causing severe pain. He says he needs a wheelchair in the morning and feels like he's "a hundred years old." Ouch. But these magic pills do wonders: since Bogut started taking them, his free throw shooting is better than ever at 69.1%, and the Bucks have won three or four.
3) Some magic pills for Charlie Bell. Charlie, who played hurt through the 14 games that Michael Redd missed during his sloooww recovery from a high ankle sprain -- and then missed six games himself -- went down again Tuesday vs. the Jazz. This time it's a sore knee, just when it was beginning to look like Charlie was returning to his 2007 form. The Bucks could use some good health in general, though nobody around the NBA is going to throw them a pity party. Malik Allen, who had been starting at power forward, has missed the last eight games with a rib injury.
4) This is where I post the Sports Illustrated photo at left of Richard Jefferson and his Trinidadian supermodel wife, Teresa Lourenco, in hopes that you read this Bob Boozer Jinx post from last week (no, this is not a shallow attempt to spice up this post with a pic of a hot supermodel). R.J. has become somewhat of a forgotten man in Bucksland, except when fans notice that his box score line doesn't always look as good as some think it should (the warped analysis of a certain ESPN stat guy comes to mind). Stats are not R.J.'s game -- the intangibles are, and those are part and parcel to the attitude R.J. brought to the Bucks via the trade with the Nets last summer. There's no question coach Scott Skiles appreciates his forward -- he keeps R.J. on the floor more than any other Buck. As of this writing R.J. is 3rd in the NBA in minutes played and the Bucks chemistry on the floor looks better than it has in years. Plus, R.J.'s hitting the three.
5) More about Teresa Lourenco? It's the least I could do. But is there no style page in this town to take these burdensome supermodel responsibilities from the Bob Boozer Jinx? Maybe now that Packers season is winding down, our local culture vultures can get on the Lourenco beat, if she's around at all. A little gemutlichkeit has never killed a supermodel from Trinidad, has it?
6) A "rookie curb" for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to hop instead of a "rookie wall" like the one Yi Jianlian hit last February. Early on this season, Journal Sentinel's Michael Hunt wrote that the defense played by the Bucks' Cameroonian prince was remniscent of the D Sidney Moncrief played in his rookie season (1979-80). That's colossal praise when you consider the NBA more or less invented the Defensive Player of the Year award for Moncrief. After an impressive start, the #37 pick in the draft became a fan favorite, then seemed worn down for a couple of weeks before last week picking it up against the Knicks, Clippers and Jazz. Mbah a Moute can guard three positions but has played most at power forward; he's contributing a solid 8.5 pts, 6.5 rebs per game ... All-Rookie honor roll so far.
7) Bucks first round pick at #8, Joe Alexander, remains a mystery. Joe's got some ups and can knock a shot down, but he looks lost on the court -- night and day compared to Mbah a Moute, who is so often in the right place at the right time. The Dalai Lama, who I found on my pilgrimage to Tibet, wasn't able to tell me why the Bucks drafted Joe, other than to say "maybe he's a good Joe" and went on to ask a lot of questions about Brett Favre. Maybe Santa knows, and some insight into why Bucks GM John Hammond drafted Joe will emerge over the holidays.
Joe and the Bucks this week did crank up a campaign to vote Joe into the All-Star Game dunk contest. Joe says you gotta vote Joe and that he's going to beat the champ, Dwight Howard. That's not the draft explaination I was looking for from Santa, but here's Joe delivering his dunk contest hype:
I don't see an Emmy in the kid's future, but the Mandarin Chinese bit should sway the far East electorate.
8) More Tyronn Lue from 3-point land!!! Lue is shooting 65% from downtown this season and is easily the Bucks best shooter. Lue is now 15th on the active NBA career 3-point percentage rankings, and its great to see rainbow jumpers by a Buck hitting nothing but net. (Unfortunately, the Lakers have noticed too). With Luke Ridnour and Ramon Sessions getting most of the Bucks point guard minutes, however, PT has been hard to come by. It'd be a nice gift if Skiles can find some creative ways to get more shots for Tyronn.
9) Ramon Sessions was more or less benched last week in Philly and NY, and the point guard responsibilities have rested on the shoulders of Luke "Frodo" Ridnour (who, in addition to point guard burdens, has more nicknames than any Bucks player). Here's hoping Sessions and coach Skiles stay on the same page and that Ramon finds his way back to the major role he played while Redd was out. Frodo won't get very far without Sam.
10) I had hoped to write an item here about Michael Redd continuing his recent passing and ball-sharing ways after the holidays -- but it was not meant to be. If anything was obvious to fans who watched the Bucks nearly hand a home game Tuesday to the depleted Utah Jazz, it was that Redd is not the guy who'll deliver the team from the land of NBA mediocrity. Oh, those 27 pts he scored looked good in the boxscore but if you watched the game (or were there) you know that Redd nearly shot the Bucks into a loss in the 4th quarter. But this isn't about one game; it's about an end to an era; an end to a selfish, no-defense style of play that Bucks fans have seen far too much of these last five-plus years.
This era is ending under coach Scott Skiles but as Tuesday showed, it's not ending soon enough -- though the Bucks did win the game, thanks to some solid defense and team play in crunch time, a very encouraging sign. In many ways, the Utah game was a microcosm for the transition that the Bucks are making this season: the better qualities of the new era have begun to overcome the deficiencies of the old.
Oh but it's Christmas, after all, no time for brooding contemplation and the weight of future (gotta leave something for the new year). The Bucks and most of the NBA are merrily into a holiday break, and that's where I'm headed, alright ...
The Celtics and Lakers play Christmas day,
Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.
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Brew Hoop Dec 24, 2008 | 12:40 pm PST
Nine months ago, things were bad. Upon reflection, it's almost hard to believe that it's been less than a year since John Hammond and Scott Skiles signed on and started to remake the Bucks' orga...
Nine months ago, things were bad. Upon reflection, it's almost hard to believe that it's been less than a year since John Hammond and Scott Skiles signed on and started to remake the Bucks' organization from the ground up. Remember March? The Bucks were stumbling to a 56-loss season, Larry Harris had departed without a full-time replacement, Larry Krystkowiak was coaching on borrowed time, and the epicenter of blame seemed to be owner Herb Kohl. Bill Simmons was in the middle of an almost-serious campaign to be GM. Needless to say it was a difficult time for the man who had more or less single-handedly kept the Bucks in Milwaukee. The team hadn't been this rudderless since the early '90s, when fans were still new enough to the idea of "rebuilding" to think that it might work within a reasonable amount of time (how about 10 years?). Fast forward to 2008, and there was no longer any such delusion.
March 2008: Nobody's happy (AP/Morry Gash)
It wasn't a very fun time to be a Bucks fan, a sentiment reflected most notably on March 16, the night of the Bag Revolt. The enduring picture of the night was that of an annoyed Sen. Kohl reacting to a handful of bag-wearing fans being led away by security in the late stages of the Bucks' 99-77 loss to the Celtics. Adding an extra dose of irony (and memorability) was the Ruben Patterson jersey donned by Bucks superfan Nowak. (Patterson of course was the registered sex offender whom the Bucks had opted not to re-sign the previous summer despite a career year in 06/07. By the way, Nowak's also a fan of Mo Williams and Terry Stotts--he just loves the black sheep).
Well, all is now forgiven. The Bucks are a long way from contention, but the team finally has some semblance of direction and remains in the playoff hunt despite a rough early schedule. And so Sen. Kohl was understandably in a good mood last night at the Bucks' "Holiday Hoopla" dinner, making his rounds, chatting with fans and posing for pictures. Kudos to him for that. Among those requesting a picture? Nowak, Keith, and Dan of bag revolt fame. Yep, those are the same Ruben Patterson jerseys.
December 2008: For Herb and Bucks fans, it's all smiles.
I had the chance to hang out with them and a couple other longtime RealGMers before the game, which is always a good time. But no one enjoyed it more than Adam, a Madison native, trumpet extraordinaire, and the Bucks' biggest fan in New Jersey. During the raffle he won a courtside ticket upgrade so he and his wife watched the Bucks from the best seats in the house. Check out his account here.
Merry Christmas everyone.
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Brew Hoop Dec 23, 2008 | 10:39 pm PST
My primary emotion after watching the Bucks beat the Jazz 94-86 tonight? Relief. The Jazz were without Carlos Boozer (as expected) and Memo Okur (a late scratch), so given the Bucks' recen...
My primary emotion after watching the Bucks beat the Jazz 94-86 tonight? Relief. The Jazz were without Carlos Boozer (as expected) and Memo Okur (a late scratch), so given the Bucks' recent momentum this wasn't exactly the kind of game you could tolerate losing. Then when Paul Millsap went down in a heap before halftime it just didn't look like they would have the horses to hang with a Bucks team that led by a dozen at the half and by a 63-44 margin midway through the third.
Wrong. Jerry Sloan went decidedly smaller in the second half and nearly stole the game thanks to a vintage performance by Andrei Kirilenko (22 points, 13 boards) and some ice-cold shooting from the Bucks (1/16 from three, 39% overall). Fortunately, the Jazz shot even worse (38%), Utah turned it over 23 times, and the Bucks got to the line down the stretch to put it away.
Three Bucks
- Luke Ridnour. Ridnour was the only Buck who seemed to play well for more than a quarter, dropping 11 dimes along with 11 points, six steals, and three turnovers in 44 minutes. Given Utah's shorthandedness, the Jazz needed Deron Williams to annihilate the Bucks' point guards, but Ridnour more than held his own. Williams scored 17 along with eight boards and eight assists, but made just 5/16 shots and turned it over an ugly seven times, many of those courtesy of Ridnour steals.
- Luc Mbah a Moute. There was a big dropoff in production after Ridnour, but I suppose Mbah a Moute (10 points, nine boards) deserves mention for his usual bundle of energy and defensive harrassment. He couldn't lock down Kirilenko late, but more oftne than not it was Mbah a Moute's help which prevented Williams from doing more damage with his penetration.
- Ramon Sessions. Sessions' minutes have been inconsistent lately, and he got just 12 minutes tonight as Ridnour had his second-highest minute total of the season. But like earlier in the season, Sessions had success playing with Ridnour in a small backcourt, scoring 13 points (4/7 fg, 5/6 ft) including six early in the fourth when the Bucks were struggling for points.
Three Numbers
- 1. The Bucks put on an agonizing show from distance tonight, hitting just one three pointer despite 16 attempts. That one came courtesy of Mike Redd, but it was the least he could do considering he attempted nine threes. What made it especialy painful was that most of the Bucks' threes seemed to be of the wide open variety. Ugh.
- 14. Williams and Kirilenko were the standouts for Utah, but they offset many of the good things they did by turning it over seven times each. Ouch. You can't turn it over 23 times as a team without being sloppy (thanks, Jazz), but the Bucks (particularly Ridnour) also did a great job of being active and scored 26 points off turnovers.
- 49-43. For the first 30 minutes or so the Bucks seemed to be getting to every rebound; that's what they do. But then Utah suddenly started dominating the boards thanks to Millsap (back after half with a knee brace) and Kirilenko. They finished with a +6 edge though the Bucks retained a 15-13 advantage on the offensive end.
Three Good
- We're going streaking...kinda. It's awfully tough to be a playoff contender when you haven't won more than two games in a row, so let's consider the Bucks' first three-game winning streak of 08/09 a modest start. The Bucks have now taken five of six and get a few days off to enjoy Christmas before the Pistons come to town on Saturday. The time off should be of particular benefit to Andrew Bogut (nine points, 11 boards, 3/7 fg), whose movement looked fairly labored tonight. Hopefully some eggnog and Christmas cookies do the trick for his achy back.
- Point taken. With Boozer out and Millsap slowed by injury, the pressure was on Deron Williams to carry the Jazz. But Ridnour (with some help from Sessions) got the job done, making it now three straight good games in a row.
- Fast starts. The Bucks once again started well, leading by eight after the first quarter and 12 at half. That's been a pretty consistent recipe of late, as the Bucks had halftime leads of 30 against the Clips, 16 in New York, 7 in Philly, 20 in Miami, and 18 against the Pacers.
Three Bad
- Meet the parents. Richard Jefferson's parents flew in from California for the game, but it wasn't exactly a storybook performance for the 'rents: RJ went scoreless in the first half before finishing with 10 points (3/14 fg).
- Redd bricks. The AP recap will also probably say something about Michael Redd leading the Bucks to victory because he had 27 points, but it was an often-painful night for the Bucks' leading scorer. Redd scored 12 in the opening period on 5/9 shooting, but thereafter he went cold, particularly from the outside where he clanged about a half dozen wide open looks from three. Fortunately he still managed 10 fourth quarter points, thanks mostly to six free throws--and a huge turnaround that extended the Bucks.lead to 90-85 with 1:12 left.
- Bell's knee. Charlie Bell did a nice job defending Williams in the first half, but had to leave the game after diving for a loose ball. The early word was knee soreness, which isn't good to hear given he's been wearing a huge brace all year.
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Bucks Diary Dec 23, 2008 | 8:07 pm PST
If you haven't found the new location, for Bucks Diary, its here mvn.com/bucksdiary.
If you haven't found the new location, for Bucks Diary, its here
mvn.com/bucksdiary.
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Bucks Diary Dec 22, 2008 | 4:08 pm PST
People are misunderstanding my argument against Michael Redd. Let me try to lay it out with odd analogies. The "Perceived Value versus Real Value" argument against Redd My brother had...
People are misunderstanding my argument against Michael Redd. Let me try to lay it out with odd analogies.
The "Perceived Value versus Real Value" argument against Redd
My brother had a Saab. He paid a relatively high amount for it. When it ran, it was okay, he got some head nods from passersby, not a lot. But the damn thing never ran. He also had a Ford Focus (I'm making all this up). Didnt pay alot for it. It ran beautifully, was pretty reliable, but had absolutely no cache.
One day my brother asked himself, was that little bit of cache he was getting from the Saab worth the price he was paying for it. It never ran... it didn't get the CENTRAL job done that a car must do to be worthwhile ( in my story cache is meant to be analagous to Redd's scoring numbers while the 'never running' part is meant to be analagous to his lack of 'Win Scoring'... Geez I'm explaining the analogys... I aint exactly Sir Winston Churchill.)
Now, my brother says to himself... there's alot of suckers out there who will pay too much for my Saab, but would probably only give me market value for my Focus. Hmmm, perhaps I can sell the Saab (ie "his overvalued asset") to some sucker who would be willing to give me something more than it is worth. Gee, I would be much better off. I will have cut ties with my expensive, OVERVALUED ASSET, and gained some productive assets... assets that can help the Bucks win a Championship.
That's why I want to trade Redd. I like driving him around on Friday night, but geez I can't pay through the nose for that little return. And, alot of people think Saab's are sweet, so they may be dumb enough to give me too much back (in terms of Win Production) for him.
Hell, the Pistons traded one of the NBA's best Win Contributors, for like 4 seasons running, for a mediocre Win Contributor who basically volume scores and runs his mouth and I guess doesn't like to practice.
So opportunites are there. Oh, one final point.
Even if we only get market value back for Redd... and this is actually a HUGE POINT, he plays a position that's pretty easy to replace with a pretty decent player... so EVEN IF WE BLOW THE TRADE... no big whoop... PLUS... Redd's monster contract is off the books.
The "Distribution of Basketball Talent" argument against Redd
Let's say there's a ton of electricians in the area and most of them are slightly below average, average, or slightly above average, with some being supertalented (Kobe) and some not so good (Ben Gordon). Meaning there is a low standard distribution (am I saying that right? I actually avoided statistics in college... i'm self taught -- like Lincoln... or, ... not like Lincoln). On the other hand, there's just slightly less plumbers in the area, but they vary wildly in talent, with few being average, many being way below average, a handful being above average and then a few being superb. Meaning there's a high standard deviation. Just play along with me, I know its dumb.
Who's more valuable? A slightly above average electrician or a slightly above average plumber? The plumber, obviously, because if you lose him you risk getting stuck with something horrible. Whereas if you lose the slightly above average electrician, you can replace him with someone who can do a reasonably good job.
Redd and his fellow perimeter players are the electricians. Big men and point guards are the plumbers. Why in the world would you offer a slightly above average electrician a maximum contract? Yeah, he'll do a nice job, but your distribution of resources is f%%d.
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Bucks Diary Dec 22, 2008 | 9:18 am PST
I'm sitting here loving all the comments on BucksDiary (btw, its unclear now when I'm moving to MVN so just keep coming back here... when i move i'll put a link up don't worry)... I'm loving Mil...
I'm sitting here loving all the comments on BucksDiary (btw, its unclear now when I'm moving to MVN so just keep coming back here... when i move i'll put a link up don't worry)... I'm loving Milwaukee Bucks basketball again... I'm proud to be an Antlerhead for the first time since they traded Ray Allen... then I'm thinking "Hey, if my buddy from Celticsblog, or if JE Skeets, or if anyone who isn't an Antlerhead is reading this... they're laughing their asses off... we're13-16!!".
But, so what? Everything in life is relative. Or, better put, everything in life is trajectory, and the Bucks trajectory appears to be pointing up.
In fact, this is how Mike Holmgren might have described the situation in one of his legendary locker room speeches... you know the ones... you've seen them on NFL Films... where he meanders all over the place trying to get the team's attention before he gets to his point and then puts the team in a frenzy... well here's what I imagine Coach Holmgren might say, courtesy of NFL Films, about the State of the Milwaukee Bucks... lets listen in (if you like it, Coach Holmgren has promised to make intermittent appearances on BucksDiary, similar to BD on that pompous political comic strip)...
"Gentlemen, gentlemen... hey... (loud voice) hey, hey, hey... hey... guys, listen up... guys... cut the chatter... guys... (conversational voice) We had a NICE couple of wins there on Friday and Saturday (Loud Cheers)... didn't we?... yeah, we did... we sure did... we sure did... a nice couple of wins... and I thought the defense played pr-e-t-ty well... pr-e-t-ty well (loud cheers)... and the offense... hey... hey, hey... the offense... well, its comin around... I think it is... i think it is... its comin around... but hey... hey, hey, hey... listen up... listen up... we haven't achieved... guys, guys... we haven't achieved anything yet... Have we? (Humongous cheers )... our goals are BIG... aren't they?! (Even louder cheers)... YES SIR THEY ARE!... But, hey.. hey, hey, hey... guys, guys, guys... we're building something here in Milwaukee, aren't we?? Yeah... You're proud to be a Milwaukee Buck again, aren't you?!!... YES SIR YOU ARE!!... (Maddending Cheers)... NOW LETS CARRY THIS MOMENTUM TO TEXAS!!!!! (Roars)... LETS CARRY IT TO TEXAS (Continuing Roars)... EVERYBODY IN HERE!!! EVERYBODY IN HERE (everybody huddles up)... (30 second pause)... Where's Brett?... Hey,
where's Brett?..."
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Bucks Diary Dec 21, 2008 | 6:56 pm PST
I just checked basketball-reference.com. I've been doing this blog for what... geez almost 4 years off and on. I cannot remember seeing more beautiful (relatively speaking) numbers for the Bucks...
I just
checked basketball-reference.com. I've been doing this blog for what... geez almost 4 years off and on. I cannot remember seeing more beautiful (relatively speaking) numbers for the Bucks than the ones I just checked.
First, were near the one third mark, we've played a tough schedule, road heavy, and our Pythagorean is above 0.500. Second, our defense, which you've heard me say time and time and time again has not been above 15th in the NBA for over a GENERATION (since Del Harris coached the team... chew on that) is now EIGHTH in the NBA and rising, and... even better news, our offense has improved!!
Two things... maybe I should lay off Redd a bit. But guys, I'm not arguing he can't help the offense... OBVIOUSLY he can!! What I am arguing is he simply isn't worth the money. Think about it this way. Lets say you have... oh screw my analogies!! Just know he's good but you don't pay 15.75 million for a frickin Corolla!!
Second, my sabermetric chart says ... whoaaa... on that "Redd is back, therefore its Redd" cause and effect reasoning... Others have improved simultaneously... Jefferson, Bogut.... Charlie V if you catch him on the right night... Whether Redd had anything to do with their performance, I doubt it... Professor Berri did exhausting research on the so-called "he makes others better" effect, and found it did not exist -- NOT EVEN WITH JORDAN OR BIRD... so I doubt it exists with a no pass gunner like Redd.
But I'm getting sidetracked. The point of this is the Bucks numbers rule. Go Bucks... got work to do... see ya.
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Bucks Diary Dec 21, 2008 | 6:34 pm PST
Normally I try, weakly, to emulate Bill James, the baseball writer. Tonight, I'm going to try to emulate Bill Simmons, the "sports guy". So this post is based on nothing but my "gut". And, sadly...
Normally I try, weakly, to emulate Bill James, the baseball writer. Tonight, I'm going to try to emulate Bill Simmons, the "sports guy". So this post is based on nothing but my "gut". And, sadly, it will probably be alot more popular and conversational than the Jamesian posts that I actually put alot of effort into. Oh well, (hey, I'm super wordy like Bill Simmons!) here it is:
16 years ago next Saturday, Christmas Day 1993 to be exact, I remember I believed the 8-6 Mike Holmgren Green Bay Packers were kind of the same old Green Bay Packers. Pretty good, yeah, improved from Lindy Infante, yeah, a little better coached, to be sure, but headed ultimately to a fate of at best 9-7 seasons, one after another, and then a series of one and dones in the playoffs. In other words, they were nothing special.
The next day, December 26th, the Packers played an okay, 8-5 Los Angeles Raiders team at Lambeau Field. The Raiders weren't great, but they were formidable. The Packers beat them down so thoroughly, so completely... LeRoy Butler invented the Lambeau Leap that day... I just remember thinking after the game... this shit is different. These aren't the same Packers. They're headed for a different plane. NFL Films says the Packers victory over the Lions in the play-offs two weeks later set them on their way... I say it was the win over the LA Raiders two weeks previous.
Of course the analogy with these Milwaukee Bucks is by no means pure. Its way too early in the Skiles era. And remember, even after the Raider beat down it took the Packers setback after setback to reach the pinnacle. And by the way, I'm not saying the Bucks can get close to the pinnacle... because basketball is different and harder.
But after 20 years of poor defensive teams, didn't those two victories just feel great? Weren't they sort of "paradigm shifts" in your mental impression of the Milwaukee Bucks? Didn't you walk away thinking "these aren't the same Milwaukee Bucks"?
I did.
That's all I'm saying.
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Bucks Diary Dec 21, 2008 | 5:23 pm PST
We suffered for soooooo long in Milwaukee with teams that could not or would not or just refused to play defense. It was so painful to watch. It was so utterly painful to watch. Now, this s...
We suffered for soooooo long in Milwaukee with teams that could not or would not or just refused to play defense. It was so painful to watch. It was so utterly painful to watch.
Now, this season, with no significant upgrade in talent... remember, coming into this season Richard Jefferson's career numbers were projecting sharply downward... with all that, the Milwaukee Bucks... OUR Milwaukee Bucks... the Boys in Green and Red... the Boys who couldn't bust the top 16 in defense for an entire generation....
Well, they are a frickin defensive machine... and they are just CRUSHING inferior teams with almost no offense and it is beautiful to watch because its proving my PROVING my theory on Defensive Win Score... they're OFFENSE IS WORSE THAN IT WAS LAST SEASON... and yet they are much improved, so much improved...
And a frequent and astute commenter by the name of "Pressey23" deserves a half credit for inspiring the notion of Defensive Win Score he unknowingly made the key inspirational critical comment (you can be a friend of this blog and rip the shit out of me you know... that's how knowledge is gained). I once wrote that Mo Williams was "a key component" because he had a positive Win Contribution, which was true... he did have a positive offensive Win Contribution.
Well, a day later, Pressey batted in the Comment section something like "Mo Williams a key component?? No way... I can't sit through another season with a point guard who plays NO DEFENSE"... He convinced me and started me thinking... defense HAS TO MATTER... It turned out that if you compared the Win Score production of the point guards of Milwaukee Bucks opponents who were on the floor at the time Mo Williams was on the floor, Mo Williams production suddenly became negative... so the NBA AVERAGE WAS FUNCTIONALLY IRRELEVANT... THE RELEVANT AVERAGE WAS THE ONE CREATED ON THE HARDWOOD IN THE GAME... Bingo...That led to the whole idea of "Counterpart Opponent"/Defensive Win Score, which led to the idea of Marginal Win Score, which led to TOTAL Win Contribution... which is now basically the raison d'être of this here blog.., so thank you Mr. Pressey, and keep it up in the second half Bucks!
And Skiles rules!!! And I'll have a TWC by at least tomorrow morning if not tonight.
And I'm moving to MVN Monday morning. I'm just too busy this weekend.
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Bucks Diary Dec 21, 2008 | 2:06 am PST
For the loyal readers of this little blog... think back just six short months... did you think the last two nights were possible? I mean FORGET the opponents? Did you think those kind of defensi...
For the loyal readers of this little blog... think back just six short months... did you think the last two nights were possible? I mean FORGET the opponents? Did you think those kind of defensive efforts were possible from these Milwaukee Bucks? Last night the Clippers Team Win Score was 15.0! That's amazing defense... A miracle has happened... Moses has chased the Pharoah out of Egypt... the 16 year plague has lifted... What else can I say for what Scott Skiles has done? He's finally gotten the Milwaukee Bucks to commit to defense... and, as my historical analysis showed, its the surest way to a world's championship (that's why I no longer like the Lakers at all -- and why I think the Cavs look ready to win it).
Click Here for my Sabermetric Boxscore: Milwaukee Bucks vs. ClippersStars of the Game1. Luke Ridnour
2. Luc Moute
3. Richard Jefferson
Notes on the Game
1. Moute is up there again. Damn, that is great to see... You notice, he plays well, the Milwaukee Bucks play well. I'll admit it to you readers, I thought the Force had left Luc, I thought either he had hit a rookie wall or the Association had figured out how to play him at the 4. Because he had, like a 2 week span of bad games... hang on, i'm going to figure out his season MWS and TWC... his Marginal Win Score currently stands at +0.9... now that's taken a beating over the past couple of weeks, but its pretty damn good for a rookie... his TWC is down as well but its still pretty outstanding for a first year, second round pick... it currently stands at +0.099... that translates into a TWC above replacement level of +0.261 (remember, he's playing 79% of his time at the second most valuable spot... power forward, so that's elevated his value considerably). That makes his Championship Percentage a lofty 9.4%. Not shabby at all for a second round pick. Not shabby at all.
2. Bogut had another sort of bad game... I'll cut him a break though, Camby is big time.
3. I hate giving positive TWC to guys like Charlie Bell who only get them because the players opposite them stink. But those are the rules... your duty is to outproduce your counterpart opponent... by any means necessary... you do that, you improve the team's win probability.
4. I can't believe how badly Luke Ridnour DESTROYED the so-called great Baron Davis. What has happened to him? He looked disinterested! I bet he's thinking about whatever movie he's gonna produce or whatever. Way to go Luke.
5. Brilliant basketball game from Richard Jefferson. Brilliant.
6. When will we see something like that from Redd. He's having a crappy season, backing up what was a CRAPPY season last year. When's he gonna start playing like a max dollar player. The reason I'm harpin on this you guys is because we've got the defense in place... all we need are those one or two efficent offensive engines to drive us to some wins, and we paid for a Ferrari engine and Redd's kind of giving us a Ford Focus... you know, it runs, but its nothing special... meanwhile RJ is like a Saab... it goes great and then it doesn't go... no wait, if he was a Saab he'd be on the injured reserve a lot, so that doesn't work....hmmmm.... anyway, the point of that mumbo jumbo is were not gettin what we paid for.
7. All in all a great two nights for the Bucks... I really don't care who the opponents were... they were NBA teams, one on the road and one at home and both of them received Sleeperholds of each of thier games from a Bucks team who six months ago couldn't apply a sleeper hold to a baby. Awesome thing to see.
Put your ears to the ground, boys... I hear a stampede a comin'... the Milwaukee Bucks are on their way back!!
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Bucks Diary Dec 20, 2008 | 3:20 pm PST
This may be my last posting on blogspot. I have to check my email and see how the procedure works to switch over to MVN, but that's definitely imminent. I wish you buds could see me. I've...
This may be my last posting on blogspot. I have to check my email and see how the procedure works to switch over to MVN, but that's definitely imminent.
I wish you buds could see me. I've been shoveling all day and trying to get this stupid ENHANCED Milwaukee Bucks TWC boxscore done, because it was such a huge and crushing win. Anyway, I look like frickin Charlie Villanueva. I'm wearing tearaways. A Milwaukee Bucks hunter green old school jersey... obviously... and a Green Bay Packers cold weather headband that I haven't taken off with those kind of heavy army socks... because I've been between the computer and the fricking snow all day.
Timeout for a Rant (Skip below for my Notes on the Game)
Anyway, I wanted to do this thing because the GD Milwaukee Journal has the whole narrative wrong AGAIN. They credit stupid REDD because .... GEE he scored alot of points.
People if you lose me and dont follow me over to MVN,
PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE (I sound like
this guy) remember this... VOLUME SCORING ALONE IS MEANINGLESS IN BASKETBALL!!!!!!!!!!! If anything it can tend to kill a team... the important thing is possessions.... Its like Robin Yount taking as many at bats as he wants for the Brewers and then the Journal reporting that the Brewers won because he got four hits....HOW MANY AT BATS DID HE USE UP???
Ok, enough ranting... by the way those analogies are all stolen from the
Wages of Wins, so read it for more insight....
Notes on the Game
1. Tyronn Lue has secretly resurrected himself people. He's close to having a positive Win Contribution for the season, and his play is above Replacement Level, which is what you want from your bench players. Think about your low level players as a basement floor. The higher the basement floor, the higher the structure. Good going Lue.
2. Croshere is also playing at an above Replacement level. Can he be physical enough to be our permanent replacement center? That is my question. His athletic ability is clearly gone, he can no longer man the 3 or 4.
3 My man Moute, the Winter Prince of Milwaukee as one of my loyal commenter so aptly and keenly dubbed him, has clearly gotten his second wind. He has played some beautiful games this weekend.
4. Michael Redd will give you points per minute... lately that is the only thing he and RJ are delivering above average. They are playing decent defense, to their credit... but I also think they are benefiting from going against gunslingers. Both RJ and Michael must do more to earn their money. Particularly Michael. He must make a concerted effort to get the team more possessions. At the moment he is averaging around 1.7 possessions gained per 48. That will never get it done. Early in his career, as I have pointed out many times, he was much better at that, and he can be. Quit romancing that 3 point line. Durant has revitalized himself, Redd can too.
6. To paraphrase Bobby Kennedy, "Now its on to Milwaukee, and Lets Win There!"... Tonight is a must. Cannot lose to the Clippers at home. Cannot do it people. They're last in my Power Rankings, if I was keeping them up.
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Bucks Diary Dec 20, 2008 | 12:02 pm PST
I don't know about that "European, little man, fire it up, offense first, defense-be-damned" system Coach D'Antoni has brought to the Big Apple. It will win him games in the regular season, ther...
I don't know about that "European, little man, fire it up, offense first, defense-be-damned" system Coach D'Antoni has brought to the Big Apple. It will win him games in the regular season, there's no question about that. But, ultimately, it will not win him championships. Defense wins championships... not offense.
Of course, D'Antoni is really not working with superior personnel at the moment, and the Bucks just took them apart root and branch last night, so this unit is not a good test of my theory. Anyway, tremendous win for the Green and Red last night, and I will have a TWC boxscore shortly. (I'm going back to "Green and Red"... they're insisting on wearing
those Red jerseys so I have to go with the flow) BTW, REDD DID NOT WIN THE GAME LAST NIGHT
AS JSOLINE IS INSISTING... anyone who reads this blog and is therefore "enlightened" will know Redd had a slightly above average game but that the heroes were CLEARLY MOUTE and BOGUT. Get ready for my TWC Boxscore.
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Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 8:19 pm PST
Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 5:46 pm PST
I keep referencing my Big O '74 road jersey... here's Oscar wearing it... mine's just a replica and its in tatters... but I keep wearing it cause its my favorite Bucks road jersey and I wish the...
I keep referencing my Big O '74 road jersey... here's Oscar wearing it... mine's just a replica and its in tatters... but I keep wearing it cause its my favorite Bucks road jersey and I wish they would bring it back... I guess this year's team favors the Badger red... they've worn those things about three games in a row now... I think superstition is playin a part in that though... alright time for the second half... Go Milwaukee Bucks!!
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Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 5:40 pm PST
I've got my Oscar Robertson 1974 Hunter Green Road Jersey on right now, cause I'm not going anywhere with the snow coming down. That first half was awesome, though. They held the highpowered New...
I've got my Oscar Robertson 1974 Hunter Green Road Jersey on right now, cause I'm not going anywhere with the snow coming down. That first half was awesome, though. They held the highpowered New York Knickerbocker offense to just 37 points! Think about that... this is a defense that could not stop squat last season and they hold one of the best offenses in the NBA to 37 points in a half at home!
Skiles is brilliant...
I'm opening another Pabst Blue Ribbon and I will have a TWC Boxscore at the end of the game...
Remember I'm moving to MVN this weekend... GO BUCKS!!!!!!
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Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 5:17 pm PST
When you are looking at my offensive sabermetric chart, you can also use it as a means of determining who is suited to play what position. For instance... Ramon Sessions is above average in ever...
When you are looking at my
offensive sabermetric chart, you can also use it as a means of determining who is suited to play what position. For instance... Ramon Sessions is above average in every category when you consider him as a point guard, yet he is below average in some of the areas if you consider him as a shooting guard.
And indeed, Skiles has deployed Sessions as a shooting guard 32% of the time, and it has hurt his Win Contribution. Sessions Win Contribution is +2.9 as a point guard and only +.6 as a shooting guard. Deployment matters.
Enjoy the Bucks versus the Knickerbockers. My Bill James Log 5 Calculations say the Bucks have a 44% chance of taking tnis game at the Garden. So go Bucks!
If your going to a tavey to watch this game remember to drink only Milwaukee or Milwaukee heritage beers!! And careful of the snow!! Drive safely!! Ever reader counts!!
And remember I'm moving over to MVN!!! The basketball revolution lives on!!
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Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 3:00 pm PST
Bucks Diary Fans... The Revolution is moving... If your a fan of the this blog its moving. I tried like hell to bring an audience to blogspot but it just didnt work as well as I wanted. So...
Bucks Diary Fans... The Revolution is moving...
If your a fan of the this blog its moving. I tried like hell to bring an audience to blogspot but it just didnt work as well as I wanted. So were movin our act into the bigtime at
MVN, the Most Valuable Network. I'm not totally sure how its going to work, but its happenin this weekend, and I'm pretty excited.
For one thing, no more annoying purple lines when you click on an archived post (I dont know where the heck those things came from, I called them the curse of Dunleavy) or amatuer graphics.
I guess you just gotta go over to MVN and find me.
But DO IT!! I NEED YOU!!
Oh, and one, other thing. If I don't respond to email, or answer this comment or that, its not because I don't appreciate the reader. I APPRECIATE EVERY READER OF THIS BLOG. Its just my attention to detail can wane from time to time. Don't take it personally. Everyone who reads this blog is part of the brotherhood and will always be part of the revolution!! Stay Strong!! Stay on Board!! And please follow me to MVN... I need every single one of you!!!!!
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Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 1:45 pm PST
I've finally completed my statistical analysis of the Bucks offensive woes. I have the chart for your observations. It contains every important statistic for every Milwaukee Buck along with the...
I've finally completed my statistical analysis of the Bucks offensive woes. I have the chart for your observations. It contains every important statistic for every Milwaukee Buck along with the corresponding NBA positional average, taken from the positional averages done by Professor Berri's research. I leave it to you to observe which Bucks are deficient in which areas.
You will notice the chart emphasizes: possessions gained per 48 minutes, basket attacking ability, scoring reliability, and the ability to convert possessions into points. Those four categories are the essence of NBA offensive excellence.
I'm sure after looking at the chart you will conclude, as I do, that, as Alec Baldwin said in the awesome scene in
Glengarry Glen Ross, the Bucks offense's name so far this season is "
Your Wanting". (
PUT THAT COFFEE DOWN, CHARLIE BELL! YOU CALL YOURSELF A SHOOTING GUARD YOU SON OF A BITCH!)close article |
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Bucks Diary Dec 19, 2008 | 11:26 am PST
I have a Kareem Abdul Jabbar mock 1970 Milwaukee Bucks road jersey shirt in my drawer. I have an Oscar Robertson mock 1974 Milwaukee Bucks road jersey (in tatters) in my drawer. But the odds of...
I have a Kareem Abdul Jabbar mock 1970 Milwaukee Bucks road jersey shirt in my drawer. I have an Oscar Robertson mock 1974 Milwaukee Bucks road jersey (in tatters) in my drawer. But the odds of the Milwaukee Bucks ever acquiring another Kareem Abdul Jabbar, or the odds of the Milwaukee Bucks ever acquiring another Oscar Robertson again are infinitesimal.
The fact is if the Bucks are ever to rise again, they must do it the Moneyball way. They have to find the anomalies in the market and exploit them. In other words, they must act like the two venture capitalists in the book "
Super Crunchers".
These two guys went into a meeting with a couple of Hollywood big shots to pitch a proven method they had to determine whether a script would produce a profitable movie. (It was based upon regression analysis of certain elements contained within each script... I forget now what the specific elements were, but it was things you wouldn't normally consider: like the title, or the plot line... things like that... quite fascinating actually).
Think about it. This would be worth BILLIONS to the Hollywood industry. If they knew BEFORE HAND whether a movie would be profitable? That should be candy in their ears. It wasn't! Even though these two guys proved their case to these two studio CEOs, the CEOs basically threw them out the door. They told them "That isn't how we do things in Hollywood!".
Well, the venture capitalists left the meeting laughing. The author of Super Crunchers, who is a Professor of Law at Yale University wondered what in the fuck these guys were laughing about, after all their proposal just gut shoved up their asses!
Well, the venture capitalists just smiled and explained to the naive prof, "This is how we make our millions. We find silly captains of industry who cling to their irrational beliefs and we exploit them." In other words, they find market anomalies and take advantage.
The Bucks have to do the same thing if they are ever going to rise again. They have to follow the Pistons model of a few years ago. Grab productive players who are undervalued either in the draft (Tayshaun Prince), in trades (Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess,) or in mid-level free agency (Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace). (Note: If I'm wrong about how any of those Pistons were acquired please let me know. But you get the basic point. None of them cost the Pistons a King's Ransom, and all of them were Championship Percetage pieces).
That's why I so desperately want Richard Hendrix. At the moment he would cost nothing to acquire. NOTHING. And lets just say I'm right about his value. He would have a TWCar of about, lets say he gets full playing time, he would have a TWCar of .525, which is a a Championship Percentage of 18%. How do you pass that chance up? For no cost? I ask you that?
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Bucks Diary Dec 18, 2008 | 10:35 pm PST
A couple of posts ago, I reported that the Bucks attendance at the Bradley Center had fallen to its all-time low NBA rank. I did a chart showing how it followed a sort of disturbing downward tre...
A
couple of posts ago, I reported that the Bucks attendance at the Bradley Center had fallen to its all-time low NBA rank. I did a chart showing how it followed a sort of disturbing downward trend over the years the Bucks have called the BC their home gym.
Well a reader pointed out that the attendance figures did not jibe with others he had seen. Turns out he was right concerning this season. I just rechecked my source, basketball-reference.com, and they have the Bucks falling from 27th to 30th... even though the Bucks have been on the road the last week. Obviously their numbers are gross totals, but they didn't explain that anywhere and I was duped. Turns out the Bucks attendance has actually risen a bit this season to 23rd... although how much of that is tomfoolery brought on by the reduced price upper level seating deal I don't' know.
But the numbers from the preceding years remain legimitate. There has clearly been a downward trend in attendance that must be reversed. We have to get back to the days of the early 90s when the Bucks had attendance figures in the top ten in the NBA. That means the Bucks have to start putting a better product on the court.
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