Bucks picture looks rosier all over

Remember when I did my first "PVOA" snapshot of the Milwaukee Bucks schedule neutral win trajectory and I had it around 35 wins, and coolstandings.com, the Monte Carlo style Win Expectancy projection site, also had them exactly at 35 wins?

Well, just to verify that I wasn't way off the reservation with my new, much better win trajectory, I checked their numbers as well.  Same story basically.

Coolstandings.com now has the Bucks Win Expectancy above 0.500, at just above 41 wins and their playoff odds at 79%.

Hollinger agrees with my Win Trajectory

I'm not sure how he does his calculations, but John Hollinger at Espn.com also has the Bucks on the exact Win Trajectory I have them on, namely a 44 win trajectory.

Hollinger's playoff odds for the Milwaukee Bucks are also rosier than coolstandings.  Hollinger has their odds at 86%.  And Hollinger ranks the Bucks as the 12th best team in the NBA. He's a believer, and by and large, he's an analyst who looks at objective data rather than intuition, so his opinion is pretty substantial. 

And I basically agree with it (and I can be harsh on the Bucks).  In fact, if I had the time to do my PVOA calculations for the entire NBA, that is about where I would project them as well... upper half of the Association, for sure.

One year ago, I think I had them ranked in the bottom 3.

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Bucking the Lottery trend?

As the Bucks prepare to play the Houston Rockets tonight, it looks like their fortunes are rocketing skyward as well.

When you adjust for strength of schedule as well as home/away, the Milwaukee Bucks are now performing like a 44.5 win basketball team.  That represents a near 19 game improvement over last season if present trends continue.

How did I figure that out?

For those new to this blog, I neutralize schedules using what I call the Point Value over Average system.  Its simple. 

Since, over the long run, basketball wins and losses boil down to offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, and since NBA teams obviously do not play the same schedules, I figure out each team's "actual" record at any given point by calculating the team's offensive and defensive efficiencies compared to their opponents defensive and offensive efficiencies, adjusted for whether the game was played at the opponents gym or at the team's gym.

Example: Lets say the Lakers were 10-1, but someone accused them of playing a home-heavy, easy-opponent schedule.  Well, to neutralize that I simply add up the Lakers points scored per 100 possessions and their points allowed per 100 possessions, and then I do the same for every opponent on their schedule (but my calcualtions for opponents are home and away specific -- because of the enormous historic home gym advantage in basketball).  Then I average the combined opponents numbers, flip them around (because you are looking for the NBA average vs. such a schedule of opponents), then compare them to the overall numbers for the Lakers.

So say I figured out that the average NBA team would have scored 105.7 points per 100, and allowed 107.1.  That means the average team, facing the Lakers schedule, would be a below .500 team -- the Lakers obviously faced a tough schedule.

Now lets say the Lakers eff numbers  are 106.1 and 106.0, meaning they have played about .500 basketball.  BUT IN FACT, a .500 team, facing the Lakers schedule, would be BELOW .500, so IN FACT the Lakers have played, using "Point Value over Average", like AN ABOVE .500 TEAM, when neutralizing their schedule.  Get it?

Back to the Bucks story

Anyway, in the last 8 games, the Bucks trajectory has gone way up, as their level of play has gone way up.  A team facing their schedule ought to be playing 0.456 basketball.  That is what the Bucks record says they are playing (arguing they are a .500 team), but their "Efficiency Differential" is actually better than that.

Their Efficiency Differential is about 101.7-101.7, about 0.499, so in fact they've played well enough to win two more games. 

Thus, since the average NBA team (a 0.500 team over the course of the season) would, facing the same opponents and the same home/road mix, in fact be a 0.456 team, then one can conclude the Milwaukee Bucks are actually playing like AN ABOVE 0.500 TEAM!!

Drink that in.  I calculate their Win Trajectory at about 44.5 wins.  Wouldn't that be saahhhhweeettt?

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They were almost "the same old Bucks" in San Antonio.

They had been up by 11, 78-67 late in the in the 3rd quarter. But over the next 8 minutes they saw that lead disappear as the San Antonio Spurs outscored them 19-6 to take an 86-84 lead with 6:47 left in the game. 

Michael Redd was hot in the first half (16 pts) but hadn't hit a shot in over 12 mins. He was 0-3 in this 8-minute stretch. Richard Jefferson had missed a 3-pointer; so had Charlie Bell.  Charlie Villanueva had his jumpshot blocked by Ime Udoka, a post move blocked by Tim Duncan, and had plain missed a third jumper.

They had lost control of the game and looked a lot like the Bucks of the last five years -- settling for jumpshot after jumpshot and unable to get stops as the game slipped away. Point guard Luke Ridnour, who had missed two 3-pointers of his own, had to find a way to get this #h$t under control.  Last possession, Luke had made sure Bogut got the ball, easy two on a layup ... it was the first shot Bogues had taken in almost five minutes ...

Then Manu Ginobili stole the ball from Ridnour and Roger Mason dunked it on the break. 88-84 Spurs, a 21-6 run.

Bucks coach Scott Skiles called time out with 6:30 left, and there it was: Who was going to play this game? The old Bucks, with their mental lapses and untimely jumpshooting -- the Bucks who showed up in Detroit Saturday?  Or the Scott Skiles Bucks?

The Scott Skiles Bucks took the court. Ridnour started it off draining a three off a Michael Redd pass. After Duncan missed against Bogut, R.J. found Bogut free in the lane for a dunk and the Bucks had the lead back, 89-88. ...  They would not give it up, outscoring the Spurs 15-5 after the time out to take a 99-93 lead with 36 seconds left on a Bogut feed to Bell for a layup. That should have been the game. Things got a little nerve-wracking after that but the Bucks held on for a 100-98 win.

This was a team win, orchestrated by Ridnour, in which sharing the ball was crucial in crunch time. Bogut scored 8 of the Bucks last 18 points and finished with 20 pts and 14 boards, outplaying All-Pro Duncan. ... Bell had 4 pts during the game-winning run, Ridnour and Redd 3 apiece (R.J. didn't take a shot). ... Redd led the scoring for the game with 25 pts, shooting well the first 30 mins of the game, but only 1-6 in the final quarter-and-a-half.  He also had 10 rebounds (when's the last time he had double figures in rebounds? - not this season) and 4 assists.

Redd's 4th assist was the one that mattered most, coming as it did when the Bucks needed a hoop after the Skiles time out. In all, five of the Bucks last seven hoops were assisted, with Ridnour (2), R.J. (1), Redd (1) and Bogut (1) ringing up dimes.

In my last post, I wrote that "the Bucks are a team in transition to the Skiles era, a new place where tenacious, consistent D and ball movement are religion. ... against the Jazz at the BC (Dec. 23), the Bucks could say that the qualities of the new era overcame the lax defense and sluggish, selfish offensive tendencies of the old." Then came the miserable game against Detroit Saturday in which the old Bucks showed that they're still around.

With this win against the Spurs the Bucks can again say that the Scott Skiles team of the new era is here, too, and that the better qualities of the new once again overcame the tendencies of old, and did so convincingly against one of the league's top teams. This was the Bucks' best win of the season, and would have been a great way to end 2008.

Instead, they'll take it to Houston for a New Year's Eve matchup against Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady and the Rockets (no, the Charlie V for Carl Landry trade rumors didn't pan out, see below).  Gametime is 6:00pm. We'll see which Bucks team prevails tonight, knowing that those habits of old have a habit of showing up even when the new Bucks have had the last word.

Ridnour finished with 21 pts, 4 rbs and 6 assists.

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If Joe Alexander gets enough fan votes to win the rookie slot in the All-Star weekend dunk contest, Dwight Howard will NEVER top this dunk:

He's got my votes!!!

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TRADE RUMOR UPDATE

I wish there was a definitive way to tell whether a trade rumor was just a rumor. The rumored Charlie Villanueva - Carl Landry trade with the Rockets never panned out; the Tyronn Lue for Chris Mihm trade remains a Lakers pipe dream; and the speculation about trading Charlie V and Lue for one of the Oklahoma City Thunder's big forwards still looks like nothing more than speculation -- unless that forward is Nick Collison, the one the Thunder doesn't want to trade.

But here's the latest from the Racine Journal Times' Gery Woelfel on Michael Redd, more or less what Woelfel said on WSSP Sports Radio 1250 after the Pistons game Saturday. It's the third item on the list:

"There is a growing speculation among NBA officials that it’s only a matter of time before the Milwaukee Bucks trade star shooting guard Michael Redd. That would be unfortunate for Redd is an even better person than he is a basketball player."

So now the referees are trying to trade Redd?  It's time to get some more substantive sourcing behind these rumors and speculation. And there really isn't much reason to couch terms about trading a basketball player ... is there? What would TMZ do? ...In any case, it sure does sound like Woelfel's a bit biased against a Redd trade, doesn't it? Maybe he hasn't noticed the luxury tax crunch the Bucks will be in this offseason, partly due to Redd's $17.04 million 2009-10 salary?

It's becoming widely known that Bucks GM John Hammond wouldn't balk at a move that would improve the roster, despite the team's public stance that it isn't interested now in roster moves. This from Yahoo Sports' Bucks team report:

"While Bucks officials insist they don’t have any trades in the works, they also claim to be far from content with their roster. [With the trades for R.J. and Ridnour, and the drafting of Luc Mbah a Moute] three-fifths of the Bucks’ starting lineup is new. There is growing speculation [Bucks GM] Hammond could make another significant move: trading star shooting guard Michael Redd."

There's that word again: speculation. But the speculation of Woefel's "NBA officials" and others isn't much more than common sense. The main unknowns are whether the Bucks will look for salary cap room for this summer now (the most likely scenario) or wait to deal with next season after July 1; and how much cap room they're looking for. 

It is only a matter of time before the Bucks find a trade for a shooting guard or big forward who can play some D and would a good fit for Skiles' uptempo offense. The trouble is finding a team that 1) Needs a scorer like Redd; and 2) has the right mix of pricey expiring contract(s) and player (s) to help the Bucks improve.

If not, there's always Tracy McGrady. Rockets fans are beginning to call for a McGrady-Redd trade (or something) and the Rockets want to contend for the title this season. McGrady doesn't seem to be up to it. This should only be acceptable if the Rockets also take Dan Gadzuric and the $17 mill or so he's due the next 2-and-a-half years. I realize the Rockets just signed Mutumbo Mutombo, but who can resist a three-headed international center combo? China, the Congo, Netherlands represent!  And with an Argentinian power forward ...

What the Rockets need to challenge the Lakers, to beat the likes of Deron Williams and the Jazz; Manu and Parker and the Spurs; Chris Paul and Hornets is a better outside game -- they've got the paint covered. I would think they would be very interested in Redd, if they could ignore that he's nothing more than an average three-point shooter. Maybe this is where Damon Jones comes in handy in a trade. ...

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I do know that Chris Mihm, will not become a Milwaukee Buck this season, and that's a good thing.  The Lakers reportedly have had a standing offer on the table to trade little-used center Mihm to the Bucks for Tyronn Lue. The Bucks, however, have little interest in Mihm, who had two foot surgeries last season.

Enter the Rockets, looking for a center to back up Yao Ming, or so the rumors go. The Rockets would have traded Carl Landry and a reserve guard to the Bucks for Charlie V; the Bucks would send Lue to the Lakers; and the Lakers would send Mihm to the Rockets.

That won't happen now because the Rockets on Tuesday brought center Dikembe Mutombo back to the team on a veteran minimum contract. Looks like the rumored Bucks-Rockets trade was always contingent on whether or not the Rockets could lure Mutombo out of retirement (he retired after last year). Had the Rockets not convinced Mutombo, a three-way trade with the Lakers and Bucks may have been the plan B the Rockets were considering. According to Mutombo (see the linked story), the Rockets pursued him heavily over the weekend, so that's one indication that Houston wasn't too hot about the Lakers-Bucks option.

Now the Rockets don't need Mihm, the Bucks don't want him and apparently the Lakers don't either. But that doesn't mean that the Lakers or the Bucks should stop looking for a team that does. Lue played a solid NBA finals for the Lakers against Allen Iverson and the Sixers, and Phil Jackson wants him back, obviously. Lakers backup point guard, Jordan Farmar, just had knee surgery. The Bucks could pick up a worthwhile young player, or even a bench contract and a 2nd round draft pick if somebody wants Mihm badly enough.

Not that the Bucks should be too interested in trading Lue. Ty from downtown is on the Bob Boozer Jinx Christmas list, which should be an important consideration for the Bucks in any moves from here on out. He's shooting 52% from 3-point-land this season, and has moved past Redd this season into the top 20 career 3-point shooters in the league. He's 44th all-time in the NBA, taking aim at Jon Barry, Danny Ferry, Hersey Hawkins, and, yes, Reggie Miller too if he keeps shooting at his current clip.

Note: Damon Jones is right behind Lue on that list at #47. This may become important as the Feb. 19 trading deadline approaches, as I've noted above. Any number of contending teams could be interested in Lue or Jones because 1) They are veterans with playoff experience; and 2) The ability to hit from downtown is a potential edge in the playoffs. And there's so very little separation among most of the top 12 teams in the league.

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Bucks take it to Duncan big time; Parker as well

Andrew Bogut is playing at a very high level right now.  He went out on the court and basically destroyed one of the great players of our time, Tim Duncan, to lead the Bucks to a  100-98 win over the hometown San Antonio Spurs.

I'll have the sabermetric breakdown around noon, but I finished the calculations and Bogut had 19.5 Win Score points while allowing Duncan 1.0.  Bogut's MWS48 for the night was +9.9, and his Total Win Contribution was +1.800 something.  It was a Kareemesque performance.

The other guy who helped the Bucks win was not really Michael Redd, as I indicated.  Yes Redd had a huge night on offense, but I forgot to negate the massive Win Score he allowed to Manu Ginobli and especially Michael Finley.  So Redd finished the night just above average... we still needed his all-around play to offset Finley and Ginobli... or I suppose he could have just shut Finley or Ginobli down... six of one half dozen of the other.

The other big Win Contributor was Luke Ridnour.  The Force was strong in That One last night, as he finished the game with a Total Win Contribution of +0.611, I believe.

So, who would have thought that?  The Milwaukee Bucks turned two of the Spurs traditionally huge Win Contribution positions completely against them and won an electrifying victory over the San Antonio Spurs.

Green and Red and Growing... Milwaukee Bucks!!

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The Milwaukee Bucks spent approximately 364 days to reach the pinnacle of 2008, a 100-98 win in San Antonio.

In a game that ran the emotional gamut from disbelief to relief, and from horror, uhh, to euphoria, the Bucks prevailed, giving them the 2-0 season-sweep of the Spurs.

Milwaukee watched its eight-point fourth quarter advantage melt into an 88-84 deficit, but cool customers (and the Three Bucks) called Luke Ridnour, Andrew Bogut, and Michael Redd ran off seven straight points to regain the lead.

Tim Duncan led the Spurs with 20 points but struggled to a 7-20 shooting night. Former Wisconsin standout Michael Finley (8-10, 4-5 on three-pointers for 20 points) was the real star for San Antonio.

Three Bucks

• Luke Ridnour. Luke juked and jived his way to nine fast points early in his sensational third quarter to give Milwaukee some slight separation. He also stuffed Parker, who then rolled his ankle going the other way, on a drive to the hoop. Before that, Ridnour bothered Parker into a technical. Honestly, Ridnour is playing his best ball since November of '06. He finished with a superfly 21/5/6 and two blocks.
  
• Andrew Bogut. Bogut threw down three dunks in the first period on his way to winning the individual and team matchup against Duncan and the Spurs. Drew brought first quarter fury, hitting 4/4 from the field for 8 points, two boards, and two assists. He was even better in the fourth quarter, reemerging with a pair of huge dunks before drawing a charge on Duncan and then calmly sinking two free throws to extend the lead to 97-93. Brilliant, all around. Bogut's fine line: 20/14/4 on 9/13 fg and three blocks.
  
• Michael Redd. Add extra-credit for degree of difficulty on field goal attempts, and Redd would have netted about 45 points tonight, but his real-life 25 will work. Mike's hundred-dollar shots usually only counted for two points at a time, but he piled up enough of those fadeaways to build a Bucks' lead the Spurs ultimately couldn't overcome. 25/10/4 without a turnover for Redd.
  

Three Numbers

• 68.4 % The Bucks put the awfully awful shooting performance against the Pistons behind them nicely by converting 13-19 (.684) field goals in the first quarter. The finished a pleasing, usually successful 41-80 (.512)
  
• 9. Andrew Bogut (9-13), Luke Ridnour (9-15), Michael Redd (9-19) each made nine shots from field for Milwaukee, while no Spur made that many.
  
• 3. The Spurs had three offensive rebounds combined. Bogut had four offensive boards himself. Tony Parker was the only Spur starter with a single offensive rebound. Thanks for the defensive glasswork, Bogut, Redd, Jefferson, Ridnour, and company.

Three Good

• The Principal. You wouldn't notice it from the box score, but Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (6/1/2) was pretty profound. His early interior passing (he fed Bogut for two early dunks) was basketball beauty, if for nothing else, its simplicity. Luc really has a smooth, soothing effect on both ends of the court. Tonight he ignited the Aussie, who dunked early and dunked late. Call him the Principal, because he's royalty, and he's in command.
  
• Not a Lone Star. Three Bucks stepped up into starring roles in the Lone Star State. Parker/Ginobili is as good as it gets at guard. You know that, I know that, and rest assured, they know that too. Maybe that's why they were so obviously annoyed tonight while Ridnour/Redd outplayed them. The Bucks' starting backcourt duo played like the all-pro's that Parker and Ginobili are, scoring, passing, and rebounding. They had help down low too, where Bogut was superior to Duncan, as each of San Antonio's big three were outplayed all on the same night. That doesn't tend to happen.
  
• Rolling in the River City. The Bucks let the good times roll in the River City, improving to a delightful and/or incomprehensible 12-8 against the Spurs since the 1999-00 season. It's conceivable that the Spurs could be a number two seed in the playoffs and the Bucks a seven. Unfortunately they can't match up in the first round.

Three Bad

• Fourth quarter fright. The Bucks were up 99-95 with 16 seconds remaining and Michael Redd on the line for two free throws... And came thisclose to blowing the lead. Redd made one of two at the stripe, and then Roger Mason (yes, the same do-not-leave-Roger Mason-open-for-a-corner-three-at-the-end-of-the-game Roger Mason from the pregame notes) hit a corner three with nine seconds to go. 100-98. Then Richard Jefferson neglects to inbound the ball for 5+ seconds. Spurs ball. Finally, Duncan gets a good look at a running layup but misses.
  
• For three. San Antonio entered the game as the best three-point shooting team in the NBA and lived up to the label tonight. Whenever the Bucks tried take control, they were met by a Michael Finley or Bruce Bowen or Roger Mason three-pointer. San Antonio made 10-16 (.625) from beyond the arc.
  
• No easy encore. Step two on the Texas two-step is in Houston tomorrow evening, where the Rockets are 10-4.
  

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Can we cryogenically freeze that performance by Michael Redd? 

Tonight, in San Antonio, Michael Redd produced 14.0 Win Score points in 44 minutes of action.  Michael Redd produced a boxsheet full of black numbers in nearly every offensive category.  Michael Redd produced, along with others, a huge win for the Milwaukee Bucks.  Notice I never once mentioned his point total.  It was secondary to his overall accomplishments. 

That was a maximum dollar basketball player if I've ever seen one.  And Redd should be keen enough to know, that if he wants to be respected at or near the level of the Kobe Bryants, et al, or at least the Ray Allen's, all-around production is the ONLY path to his goal.

Now, can he produce like he did tonight on a consistent basis?  The young Bucks need his help EVERY NIGHT to reach high levels this season.  So, if he can't hit his jump shot... then he must go to the boards with even more ferocity, he must go for steals with even more determination... the point is he cannot just keep shooting.  Scoring alone, especially inefficient scoring, doesn't help the Bucks cause and it really doesn't help Michael Redd's cause.

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1. 364 days from utter despair to new hope

The great thing about life, and the frustrating thing too I guess, is that fortunes can change on a dime.  People, families... or basketball teams can take the blows life gives them, get up, regain their senses, and fight back with ferocity against the forces holding them down.

Bucksfans, I don't know if you remember this, but a year ago tomorrow the Bucks suffered  one of the worst losses in franchise history.  The Bucks played with aggravating indifference against the Detroit Pistons and were simply run into total humiliation.  I was ashamed to be a Bucks fan.  In retrospect, I should have seen the game as a harbinger of the year to come.  Brutal.

364 or whatever days later and, unbelievably, the team got the wrecked ship seaworthy again and now it sort of seems like the wind is at our sails again.  The Bucks have gone from an organized embarrasement to a pretty good basketball team.  Tonight they showed BucksNation proud by marching into an arena where they were destroyed last year, and doing a little butt kicking of their own.  Here's to reversals of fortune.

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Wow!  The Bucks go on the road and hand it to the Spurs, whupping them on the glass... an area the Spurs once dominated.  Tonight it looked like two ships passing in the night... a Green and Red one on its way to a place called "Respectability" and a Silver and Black one headed back to port after a long championship journey.  I could be wrong but that's what it looked like. 

Several posts are in route.  Stand by.

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Beasley struggling mightily

I'm not picking on Michael Beasley, the second pick in the NBA draft last summer.  I'm picking on myself.  How could I have been so wrong about him?  Before the draft I made statements suggesting Chicago would regret not picking him.  At the moment all they regret is even considering him. 

At the moment, Beasley's Marginal Win Score average per 48 minutes is -4.3.  To put that into perspective, replacement level players at the power forward average -1.6.  Yi Jianlian is averaging, at the moment, -1.6.  Bobby Simmons, the horrible small forward, is averaging -2.5.  -4.3 is bad.  He is absolutely killing the Heat.

And the truly disturbing thing is,he's deficient in every single marginal category except scoring and free throw attempts... the latter of which is a curse in disguise.  It means he doenst go to the hoop nearly enough for a big.

In every other category he is being outproduced or outperformed.  So far, he stinks.  If I was Miami I would explore playing him at small forward.  He definitely has shown no interest in the duties of power forward.

How could I have been so wrong?

All the numbers said he would produce.  But I should have looked deeper.  Perhaps the numbers came too easy.  Was he rebounding out of a zone defense, for instance? 

Moreover, the thing that I think is going to be my danger signal is body type.  If the player does not fit the professional body type for the position, I will be wary of his numbers.

Another thing, but not as helpful.  All last season, Beasley screamed at me in one ear "Walter Berry" and in the other "that lefthanded dude from UCLA".  I don't go for that Best Case: Kareem; Worst Case: Swen Nater bunk, but maybe in this case I should have.

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Brew Hoop talks to 48 Minutes of Hell

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It's Bogut/Duncan VIII (Morry Gash/AP)

Bucks (14-17, 6-12 road) @ Spurs (20-10, 12-5 home)

Gametime: 7:30 p.m. central time (FS Wisconsin)

Injuries:

Bucks: Charlie Bell (knee) is questionable.

Spurs: Fabricio Oberto (foot) is not expected to play.

08/09 Series:

Nov. 12: @Bucks 82 Spurs 78

08/09 Advanced Stats:

Bucks Offense: 23rd (104.3 points/100 possessions) Defense: 8th (103.9)  Pace:  11th (92.6)

Spurs Offense: 13th (107.4 points/100 possessions) Defense: 6th (103.8) Pace: 27th (88.6)

Three points:

• Shoot 'em up. San Antonio doesn't like to dunk. The Spurs have a mere 23 dunks this season, far and away last in the NBA. That's not even half as many as the next lowest, the Pacers with 58. San Antonio also ranks 29th in "and-ones" in the NBA with 52. This makes sense because they are largely a jump-shooting team. Only 26 % of San Antonio's attempts are inside shots, the second lowest percentage in the NBA. Beware though, because they are a very good jump-shooting team. Manu Ginoboli, Tony Parker, Michael Finley, Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, and Ime Udoka are shooters. And do not -- I repeat do not -- leave Roger Mason (.469 from deep) open for a corner three. Just ask the Suns.
  
• The San Antone throne. I take you back to late at night on Wednesday, November 12, 2008, when all things Spursian were bleak. The proud team of the 2000's, an outfit which won 56+ games each year this decade, had fallen to 2-5 after shooting for 78 points in Milwaukee. Players called Anthony Tolliver and Jacque Vaughn roamed the Bradley Center for a full game's length combined. Now, just a smidgen over a month and a half later, San Antonio stands atop the best division in basketball at 20-10. Parker and Ginoboli are back. And the Spurs are scorching the West once again, winners of five straight and 11 of 13. Yes, the Bucks are historically wildly good against tonight's opponent. But no, these Spurs are decidedly not the same ones Milwaukee defeated earlier that on that night of Wednesday, November 12, 2008. While they aren't defending champs, Duncan/Parker/Ginoboli wear lots of National Basketball Association jewelry.
• Big battle. It's not as though they are always necessarily matched up on the court, but here is Andrew Bogut versus Tim Duncan, head-to-head:

Coverage:

Bucks.com / 48 Minutes of Hell / Pounding the Rock

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The Bucks game at the BC Saturday night against Allen Iverson, Tayshaun Prince, Rasheed Wallace and the Detroit Pistons was in many ways a test of Scott Skiles and the new era Bucks. 

Coming into the game, the Bucks had yet to win a game against a team the caliber of the Pistons -- not one with its parts relatively in place (it's rare to find a team at full strength in the NBA this time of year). 

They still haven't. .

If it was a test, the 87-76 loss should quiet Bucks' playoff talk. For a few days at least. The 14-17 Bucks have beaten only three teams with winning records and two of them were missing a pair of star players (the Spurs and the Jazz).

The Pistons game went bad quickly in the 3rd quarter, so badly that Skiles pulled his starters. With the exception of rookie Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Skiles left them on the bench for the final 16 minutes of the game. The home crowd boos that descended on them in the 4th Quarter should be a loud enough local protest to  trail the Bucks to Texas, where this week they play a Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back against West contenders San Antonio and Houston.

The Bucks are a team in transition to the Skiles era, a new place where tenacious, consistent D and ball movement are religion. In their most recent win against the Jazz at the BC Tuesday, the Bucks could say that the qualities of the new era overcame the lax defense and sluggish, selfish offensive tendencies of the old. The Skiles Bucks, led by point guard Luke Ridnour, took charge in the final four minutes against the Jazz with good defense and team play, and won the game. Yet the depleted Jazz, playing without All-Stars Carlos Boozer and center Mehmet Okur, played a lackluster game that Utah coach Jerry Sloan said looked to him "like streetball."

The Pistons were also missing an All-Star, leading scorer Rip Hamilton, but there wasn't anybody in a Pistons uniform handing out streetball passes Saturday. After the Bucks scored the first four points of the 2nd half to take a 48-46 lead, the Pistons D forced errant Bucks shot after shot and hustled the Bucks misses into a 21-3 run. It happened quickly, over the course of 5 minutes or so.

The only Bucks points in that run were a 3-point play by Andrew Bogut, who was productive with 17 pts and 10 rebs, but he too found himself benched toward the end of the 3rd quarter with Michael Redd (who finished with just 4 pts on 2-11 shooting) and Richard Jefferson (10 pts and one of his worst games as a Buck).

"It felt like Mbah a Moute and Ridnour were the two guys that stood out as being ready to play and to have that winning-type energy you need," Skiles said.

Ridnour had to fight off the effects of the flu to play Saturday. It must have irked Skiles to no end to watch Luke's teammates reward his perseverence by playing as if they were sick. I have a feeling this contributed to the benching of the Redd, R.J. and Bogut. 

The message was clear: The Scott Skiles Bucks have not yet arrived in Milwaukee; and the coach was in no mood Saturday to pretend that his starters could mount a 20-point comeback playing anything other than Scott Skiles basketball.

So what was wrong with the Bucks Saturday?  A few things, and more. But before I get to that, it's time to go out and have a smoke:

INTERMISSION

You gotta love The Rim Rockers Milwaukee's own flying basketball circus. Here's the Rockers setting a couple of world record for the Guinness Book Saturday, Dec. 20 at the BC.. Thanks go to eric for sending in this clip.

END INTERMISSION

What was wrong with the Bucks Saturday?  To be fair, the Iverson Pistons are a bad matchup for the Bucks. The Chauncey Billups Pistons played closer to the walk-it-up pace of the Michael Redd Bucks of the last five years. As a result, the Bucks had some past success against Detroit, even a win last season. Those days are over. Iverson plays the game in a gear known only to Iverson, and he has players like Rodney Stuckey, Prince and Hamilton (when healthy) to run with him.

The Bucks are playing a faster pace, too, part of the uptempo Skiles approach. Problem is, this team is not built for it: The feet of Redd, Bogut, and the two Charlies don't move that fast and it's something Skiles has had the team working on. Skiles addressed the tempo issue this weekend in raving about the job Ridnour has been doing at the point:

"[Ridnour]'s been good on the break. As I've said a couple times, we need to help him more by getting up the floor with a little more thrust. We've done that the last few games (before Detroit). The past six or seven games he's been very, very good."

Point being, if the Bucks need to be reminded not to fall behind Luke Ridnour pace, how can they keep up with Iverson's pace? They haven't done it yet. They've lost two games to the Pistons and neither one has been close.

*********************************

Focus is another problem. The Bucks apparently lost it in the days off Skiles gave them Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. They obviously lost it in the 3rd Quarter Saturday, which raises questions about the mental tenacity of this team. This is another lingering trait from the pre-Skiles Bucks, and the mentally tough Pistons exposed this on the Bucks home floor. It'll be interesting to see how the aforementioned starters - the "stars" - respond to being benched.

*********************************

Personnel shortcomings: The Pistons have been the Team of the 2000's in the East, but they've been struggling since the Iverson trade, and came into the BC with a 12-11 record with the Answer. In fact, on the night the Pistons played the Bucks, an Arizona Republic writer asked in an NBA Insider column, "Pistons better off without Iverson?" 

Rasheed Wallace is past his prime and the younger Pistons are still growing. Stuckey, who recently became the starting point guard, is only in his second year. Young big men Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell are still developing. Forward Antonio McDyess missed more than a month after the Iverson trade (he was traded for Iverson but obtained a buyout from Denver and returned). Former Buck Michael Curry is their 3rd coach in five years and this is his first year as a head coach.

Despite all this, the Bucks haven't gained ground on the Pistons. Bogut is still the only Buck who would start on Detroit.  R.J. and Luc Mbah a Moute (eventually) would fare well in Detroit and find PT. And Sessions? But the rest of the Bucks?

Of course it's no shock to anybody that the Pistons roster is better than the Bucks. Or that the Bucks core of R.J., Redd and Bogut is simply no match for the Iverson/Hamilton, Prince and Wallace core. But the bench edge goes to Detroit too, especially when they go big in the starting lineup and bring Hamilton off the bench.

These are not the defending champion Pistons of 2005. They are the 5th-in-the-East Pistons looking up in the standings at the Atlanta Hawks. The Bucks are tied for 8/9th with Chicago. This was not just "one bad game" for the Bucks. It was an illustration of how far they still have to climb to compete in the East. 

The Richard Jefferson trade has improved the Bucks, yes, and so has the coaching change. And Mbah a Moute. Ramon Sessions is an improvement. Ridnour is coming along under Skiles. There's a lot to talk about. Yet STILL there is a huge talent and performance separation from the East's 5th place Pistons to where the Bucks are in 8/9th. Based on what I saw last week in the home games against the Jazz and Pistons (with three days off prior), I don't believe this Bucks roster can close the gap. It's not in all of them.

When does Bucks GM Hammond wake up and realize that there is no point in holding off on major, long-term looking moves. To do so only holds back the players who can play Skiles basketball.

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.... Which brings us to another possible distraction for the Bucks on Saturday:

TRADE RUMORS

(read at your own risk - these are mostly rumors, which makes me a rumor mongerer, for better or worse) 

The Bucks camp was rife with them through the X-mas holidays, including word that Michael Redd is back on the trading block. 

On the Sports Radio WSSP AM-1250's postgame show, Racine Journal Times Bucks columnist Gery Woelfel, reported that a number of teams have contacted the Bucks to inquire about Redd, and that the Bucks are listening. Charlie Villanueva and Tyrone Lue have also come up in trade scuttlebutta within the last few days. Only one Buck is untouchable: Andrew Bogut.

Woelfel didn't say which teams have inquired about Redd, though he did mention that NY was interested last summer. (Hey Gery, why didn't you report it then?) The Knicks have made two big trades since, so a trade with the Knicks is now likely lost opportunity. (And of course, Cleveland pursued a Redd trade until settling for Mo Williams; the Cavaliers are out of the trade market for now, standing pat with their title hopes and a 26-4 record.. for now). 

The Bucks took Redd off the market after acquiring Richard Jefferson in June and, as recently as November, the word around the NBA was that the Bucks were not actively working the trade market on any player. GM John Hammond's stance has apparently changed in recent weeks. The trade deadline is just seven weeks away. 

It's encouraging (to say the least) that with Redd's lavish contract ($45 mil over 2.5 yrs), his recent poor play and absence the entire month of November, teams are still interested. Redd has struggled in Skiles' system and seems to have an aversion for the quick pace that is Skiles basketball (he had the same problem in the Olympics playing Team Redeem's relentless pace, and his shooting suffered ... a lot). 

Redd is leading the Bucks in scoring at 18.5 pts per game, but his shooting has plunged below 40% from the floor; .337 from 3-point land. If the lousy shooting persists, the other parts of his game -- his poor defense and passing, along with his overall poor decision-making on the court -- become pretty big liabilities to a team trying to implement a system of constant defensive pressure and up-tempo ball movement. Oh, and then there's that aversion to running the floor.

(If there are any scouts reading this, a BIG if I know, just keep moving -- there's nothing to see here. Everything's fine in Milwaukee with Michael and we think he's a good candidate to make a return to the All-Star game this season).

******************************

Moving right along. The most tangible trade reported this weekend again came from Gery Woelfel, in his Woelfel World of Sports column Friday. The Lakers are looking for backup help at point guard now that Jordan Farmar's left knee will require surgery, and Woelfel says they're offering little-used center Chris Mihm for Tyrone Lue, who played for Phil Jackson on the 2000 and 2001 Laker championship teams.

The Los Angeles Times reported that, yes, Lue's agent has been in contact with the Lakers, though neither the Bucks nor Lakers have confirmed that a Mihm-for-Lue deal is on the table. Mimh is a stiff who's had two ankle surgeries in the last couple of years. No wonder Hammond won't pick this one up off the table.

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The trigger for much of the speculation about a move for Lue was Damon Jones joining the Bucks over the weekend. Jones and Lue are both backup point guards specializing in 3-point gunning, and with Lue potentially gone, the good-shooting Jones would fill a role off the bench. Jones was acquired in the Mo Williams-Luke Ridnour trade last summer but he and the Bucks agreed that he wouldn't report to the team while the Bucks sought a trade. Hammond found no takers.

But Jones' addition may have more to do with necessity than Lue's future. Starting point guard Luke Ridnour (3 games lost to injury) has played hurt for much of the year and so has Redd's backup, Charlie Bell (7 games missed). That leaves Michael Redd (14 games missed, ankle) and Ramon Sessions as the only two healthy guards on the 15-man roster.

******************************

Charlie Villanueva, being a big forward with offensive versatility, generates a lot of trade interest around the league. He's the subject of rumors involving Houston forward Carl Landry and more speculation (Woelfel again) about another trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are looking to trade at least one of their three power forwards, Chris Wilcox, ex-Buck Joe Smith and possibly Nick Collison. I still can't figure out why OK City would want another one in Charlie, or how they expect to acquire a player with Charlie's offensive skills when bringing any one of their PF contracts here would require that the Bucks send a second player. (Tyrone Lue again). If I do figure it out, that probably means the trade has already happened, somehow. Collison has a 3-year, $19m deal.

The rumored trade of Charlie to Houston for forward Carl Landry, 25, born and raised in Milwaukee and an alumnus of basketball powerhouse Vincent High, was good while it lasted but seems to have fizzled out. Neither the Journal Sentinel or the Houston Chronicle has confirmed that a deal was or is in the works, while other sources (realgm.com/bucks) believed trade to be imminent over the weekend. The Bucks and Rockets have been silent.

What I do know is that Charlie played about as poorly as Charlie can play against Detroit, and that he may be a bit sensitive about being the subject of all this trade speculation, especially over Christmas. Villanueva for the rebound-hungry (and cost effective) Landry was discussed on NBA fanboards all over the country this weekend, and may have even invaded his iPod.

The absence of a denial about the trade from either team as the Bucks head for Texas does raise questions about whether the trade is only on hold because of Rockets injuries.The Rockets rested both Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest in separate games over the weekend. The Bucks will be in Houston Wednesday.

The Bucks were rumored to also be seeking a Rockets guard in the trade. Luther Head, one of the guards mentioned, started in place of McGrady Saturday night.  The Bucks would send Tyronn Lue to LA in the Mihm deal and Mihm would go to the Rockets.

However, that end of the deal is off, because the Rockets on Tuesday brought center Dikembe Mutumbo back to the team on a veteran minimum contract. The Rockets don't need Mihm, Bucks don't need him and apparently the Lakers don't either.

Landry averages 8.7pts, 5.1 rebs in 20 mpg. He has two years left on his contract after this season, and the last year is a player option.

Charlie's averaging 12.6 pts, 6.6 rebs in 22 mpg -- the best rebounding year of his 4-yr career. The one rebound more per game than Landry that Charlie is grabbing is on the defensive end.  CV's a restricted free agent after this season and could end up costing twice as much as Landry.

Would the Rockets do a straight up Charlie for Landry deal? It's difficult to see why they would.

Disclaimer:  It's nuts to anticipate a rumored trade based on the absence of the rumor's denial; in no way am I endorsing or encouraging this sort of thinking, unless we're talking politics. Nuts.

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Alex and I were both in holiday transit last night, so we don't have our usual recap today--though you might not want to spend too much time reading about the Bucks' 87-76 home loss to the Pistons anyway. Tayshaun Prince (19 points, eight rebounds) was one of four Pistons to score 16+ points, with Rasheed Wallace adding 16/12.  Rodney Stuckey has been playing like a man possessed of late and had another good game with 16/6/6.  Rip Hamilton didn't play because of a sore groin.

After the Utah win there were a number of quotes about how the Bucks had progressed to the point where they could win games even while shooting poorly from the field (38%).  Well, maybe they were feeling a little too emboldened by their cold-shooting win: on Saturday they shot just 30% from the field and allowed a balanced Detroit attack to walk all over them in the third quarter, when a two point halftime deficit ballooned to 18 by the end of the quarter.  Scott Skiles had seen enough by then and the starters became spectators for the entirety of the final period (Redd led the way with just 29 minutes).

Bogut put up respectable numbers (17 pts/10 boards) but made just 6/15 from the field, while Mike Redd again struggled mightily with just 2/11 shooting and four points.   Maybe his ankle is still bothering him, but you'd think it would manifest itself more in his slashing ability rather than his jump-shooting, which has also abandoned him.  Jefferson took just three shots and had neither a rebound nor an assist in 27 minutes.  Meanwhile, trade targets Charlie Villanueva and Tyronn Lue shot just 1/14 from the field and Villanueva eventually left with back spasms.  Aftering making just 1/16 threes on Tuesday, the Bucks kept it going by making 1/12 Saturday, and for good measure were also outrebounded 53-44.  Brilliant all around.

At RealGM there's also mention of Gery Woelfel's post-game trade talk.  Doesn't seem like Lue or Villanueva will make it past the trade deadline, but then again I said the same thing about CV last year.  I'd be very curious to know what sort of market there is for Redd right now--this summer it seemed Cleveland (offering expiring deals/picks) was the only obvious destination, and Redd's poor start to 08/09 wouldn't seem to have raised it.  But there are plenty of other disappointing big names around, so who knows who might be available at this point.

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 Luc and Luke. (Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Pistons (16-11, 7-6 road) @ Bucks (14-16, 8-4 home)

Gametime: 7:30 p.m. central time

Injuries:

Pistons: None.

Bucks: Malik Allen (ribs) and Charlie Bell (knee) are questionable.

08/09 Series:

Nov. 28: Pistons 107 Bucks 97

08/09 Advanced Stats:

Pistons: Offense: 15th (106.7 points/100 possessions) Defense: 17th (106.6)  Pace: 25th (89.3)

Bucks: Offense: 23rd (104.3 points/100 possessions) Defense: 8th (103.9) Pace: 11th  (92.6)

Three points:

• A December to remember. With a win, the Bucks will not only extend their overall winning streak to four games, they'll finish December with an unblemished 6-0 record at the Bradley Center. Milwaukee hasn't lost at home in almost a month; they fell to the Cavs 97-85 on Nov. 29. Forgive the Pistons if they aren't intimidated; they are a winning road team (7-6) and are perfect within the Central Division (5-0).
• On points. The Pistons needed late-game heroics from Allen Iverson to beat the Thunder 90-88 last night at The Palace. If you don't think that's very inspiring stuff coming from the Motor City, consider that Detroit has barely outscored its opponents this season. We've noted how Milwaukee's decent record has been more than deserved this year, but Detroit should feel very fortunate to boast a 16-11 record. The Pistons are +0.1 per game while the 14-16 Bucks are +0.3 per game. In fact, the Bucks have the sixth best per game point differential in the conference, the product of a lot of tight losses and some recent big wins. Milwaukee currently stands eighth in the East. Do you think the Bucks will make the playoffs? Vote.
• Ridnour's hour. Detroit is 13-9 since trading for Allen Iverson. The Nuggets are 17-10 since trading away Allen Iverson. In any event, we know very well that AI has had fun at the Bucks' expense in the Bradley Center before. He's averaging 29.6 per game against Milwaukee in his career, his second highest against any team. In Ramon Sessions, the Bucks have one of the best backup point guards in the world, and Luke Ridnour has been a major part of the team's resurgence of late. The starting point guard has these averages in Milwaukee's last three: 13.0 points, 8.3 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 3.6 steals. All wins, not surprisingly.

Coverage:

Bucks.com / Detroit Bad Boys / Need 4 Sheed / PistonsNationBlog / MLive.com

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OK, here's what we were waiting for.  Gery Woelfel writes what we kind of expected--that Damon Jones re-entering the fold could just be the first of a number of moves:

While Bell and Ridnour have health and injury issues, Tyronn Lue doesn't have either. But Lue's status appears to be up in the air as well. It is believed the Bucks have an offer on the table from the Los Angeles Lakers for Lue, with the Bucks receiving veteran big man Chris Mihm in return.

There have also been rumors that Lue could be dealt to Oklahoma City, perhaps as part of a package deal with teammate Charlie Villanueva. The Bucks are looking to solidify their power forward position and the Thunder have three power forwards that may interest the Bucks: Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox and [Joe] Smith.

All those guys would be of use, which is why I had hoped the Bucks might end up with one of them when the Mo Williams trade happened. Still, it'd swapping dynamism for consistency: none is as explosive or talented as Villanueva, who's still affordable this year ($3.4 million) but will be a RFA this summer.

Collison brings nice versatility as he can play both big positions and can do the dirty work up front, but his deal ($19.55 million over three years) is too long to stomach in my mind given the Bucks' luxury tax concerns next year. Wilcox's $6.75 million deal is expiring this summer, but he carries a rep for being a poor defender and he's having a poor season to boot--why would Skiles even bother? The 33-year old Smith is still a solid veteran who could help the Bucks a good deal, but it would seem that he'd be available for less than Villanueva.

Of more interest in my opinion is a possible deal with Houston involving hyper-efficient power forward (and Milwaukee native) Carl Landry. 

There has also been scuttlebutt Villanueva could be involved in a multi-player trade that would send him to Houston.

In return, the Bucks would possibly receive reserve forward Carl Landy, who was a prep star at Milwaukee Vincent High School.

I hadn't heard anything about the OKC thing, while the Landry rumor started to my knowledge a day or two ago.  Wichmae/GAD at RealGM have now posted the Landry deal as being close.  It would start with sending Lue to the Lakers and Villanueva to the Rockets.  The Bucks get Landry (signed to an extremely luxury tax friendly three year, $9 million deal) and either Luther Head or Brent Barry. The Rockets would also get Chris Mihm from the Lakers.

Villanueva has done a nice job thus far, but as a restricted free agent next summer the Bucks have to figure out what to do with him--and I don't see them wanting to commit long-term dollars to a player who has lacked consistency and a defensive motor for most of his career.  Adding Landry would kill two birds with one stone: a) give the Bucks' added flexibility next summer when they will need to re-sign Ramon Sessions without hitting the luxury tax and b) give Scott Skiles a young PF who better fits his system.  My only concern would be Landry's health, which was the major factor in why he dropped to the 31st overall pick in 2007.  He had reconstructive knee surgery while at Purdue and missed time last year as well.  But if Landry stays healthy it would seem to be an excellent all-around move from the Bucks' perspective.

Will one of these deals actually go down?  As I said, I don't know anything about the OKC proposal other than what Woelfel has written.  In asking around, I've heard conflicting things about the Landry deal.  First, I heard that there had actually not been any discussion of a three-way deal, though there had been discussions with both teams individually.  So that is a blow to the notion of a three-team deal, but the deal could go down in separate pieces. The Rockets need a backup big man--hence the persistent Dikembe Mutombo talk--so them getting Mihm (expiring $2.5 million) makes sense. But it's possible the Bucks could separately send Lue to L.A. for Mihm and then flip Villanueva and, say, Elson for Landry and Barry/Head (I think that still works).  That would actually be preferable to the three-way for the Bucks, since Mihm is expiring and Elson is not.

Secondly, Landry played tonight which doesn't make sense if a deal was actually imminent.  Because his offer sheet was matched on 9/25, he only became trade eligible on Christmas day and also retains to right to veto any trades until 9/25/09.  So if a deal was imminent then Landry would have had to approve it, in which case I don't see a scenario where he'd still suit up for the Rockets tonight.

On the surface, coming home would seem to be a very good career move.  Aside from being a MIlwaukee native, Landry would have every opportunity to win the Bucks' starting PF position, as Skiles has stated a preference for Luc Mbah a Moute coming off the bench. Lastly, Landry has butted heads with Daryl Morey and the Rockets' front office each of the last two summers, so that might also make him more willing to head home.

Will the Bucks' roster have changed by tomorrow night against Detroit?  Difficult to say for sure right now, but it certainly doesn't seem as though Jones' return was meant as a one-off move.  Stay tuned.

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As first reported by Dan on RealGM and now confirmed by the Journal-Sentinel, Damon Jones is ditching T.O.'s posse and joining up with the Bucks on Saturday. As you probably know, Jones was acquired in the Mo WIlliams trade this summer but came to an agreement with the Bucks that he would not be with the team while John Hammond and company looked for a way to trade him elsewhere.  The possiblity of a buyout was also discussed, but with the season nearing the midway mark and Jones unlikely to get anything but a minimum deal elsewhere, the potential cost savings to the Bucks are relatively small.

The real question: why now?  Charlie Bell could miss time with the knee injury he suffered Tuesday against the Jazz, but the Bucks have missed Bell and Luke Ridnour at various points this season without feeling the need to bring Jones back into the fold.  Aside from that, Bell hasn't really played PG at all this year with Ridnour, Sessions, and Tyronn Lue around.  So unless some other roster move is forthcoming, adding Jones seems rather...random.

Jones doesn't need to report to the Bucks in order to be traded, so my guess is his departure isn't imminent.  The more obvious answer might be a trade involving Tyronn Lue ($2.25 million), who Mike Bresnahan of the L.A. Times mentioned this week as a player of interest for the Lakers.  The simplest deal involving the Lakers would be for Chris Mihm's expiring deal ($2.5 million), but that move doesn't fill an obvious need from a Bucks perspective.  Lue's expiring and has done well as a shooter off the bench, so trading him isn't a real priority, nor is acquiring another mediocre seven-footer (that's where the Dutchmen fit in).  Which would suggest that a more complicated deal is also possible.

UPDATE: Head over to WSSP where their headline story courtesy of Gery Woelfel also has this tasty teaser:

This may be a move that lines the Bucks up to make a trade in the near future. Rumblings going around have included PG Tyronn Lue and PF Charlie V involved in potential deals. Stay tuned to 1250 WSSP for the latest on the Milwaukee Bucks.

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The Bucks are 14-16, but if you're a Bucks fan then you know that's actually a pretty good thing.  As of last night the Bucks were clinging to the 8th and final playoff spot in the East despite a road-heavy schedule and their fair share of injuries.  Not bad.  But you're probably also a bit wary, because the Bucks always seem to offer some early-season hope...and then the New Year hits and the wheels come off.  And the wheels explode into fireballs.  Call it the Globetrotter Curse or something.  Anyway, here's some historical perspective on Buck disappointments.

07/08:
7-4 on November 24
11-15 on December 25
15-41 thereafter, 26-56 overall

How it went wrong: Ah yes, the False Hope of Larry Krystkowiak. On Thanksgiving last year the Bucks were actually in first place and had taken down the Cavs (on the road), Lakers, and Mavs in succession.  Re-reading my take on the Bucks at that point, I at least had the decency to warn that the Bucks' early blowout losses and negative point differential were ominous signs, but for the most part I was feeling very good about that team.  Heck, I even wrote the sentence, "Krystkowiak seems to have won the respect of the entire roster."  Whoops! 

In reality, the Bucks won a number of early close games and it later came to light that a number of players most definitely did not respect Krystkowiak.  The Bucks also suffered some injuries following their good start, but losing Desmond Mason doesn't really explain their December problems, and the team's record with Michael Redd was actually better than with him (5-5).  For the most part, the Bucks simply weren't talented enough and the coaching staff quickly lost credibility when things went south.

06/07
13-14 on December 25
16-15 on December 30
12-39 thereafter, 28-54 overall

How it went wrong: Despite all the hand-wringing about Bogut being misused, the Bucks went on a six game winning streak from December 16-27 due in large part to their scoring backcourt of Mo Williams (24.3 ppg) and Michael Redd (27.7 ppg).  The Bucks were 8-7 in close games (6 points or less) so they weren't being especially lucky, and had beaten New Jersey (still a decent accomplishment), Miami, and San Antonio (on the road) in their December hot streak. But then Michael Redd was lost to a knee injury, landing awkwardly on a routine, uncontested late-game dunk against Cleveland. The Bucks lost 17 of their next 20 games and that was all she wrote, as some late in the season tanking injuries added to their late season spiral. 

05/06
15-9 on December 25
17-11 on January 2
23-31 thereafter, 40-42 overall

How it went wrong:  Terry Stotts' first season hardly seems like a disappointment juxtaposed against the two seasons that followed, but had a similar trend of starting fast and fading in the New Year.  The culprit this time around was simple: the 05/06 Bucks were perhaps the luckiest team in NBA history...for the first third of the season at least. They inexplicably went 13-0 in close games (six points or less) to start the season, before reality kicked in and the team went 7-13 in close games the rest of the way.  Hey, mean reversion can be cruel.  Though the team finished with 40 wins and took a game off the Pistons in the first round, the progress made was somewhat illusory: using point differentials, the 30-win 04/05 squad had an expected win total of 33, while the luckier 05/06 edition should have expected only 36. 

01/02
15-9 on December 25
33-23 on February 27
8-18 thereafter, 41-41 overall

No mention of Buck disappointments can ignore the collapse, which precipitated the breakup of the (original) Big Three.  Michael Redd was just a fresh-faced 22-year old bench sparkplug for the '02 Bucks, who suffered from something no recent Bucks team has dealt with: expectations.  A year after taking the Sixers to seven games in the East Finals, the Bucks mistakenly thought Anthony Mason might be the missing piece of their championship equation, dealing glue-guy Scott Williams to make room for the 35-year old PF.  But as much as Mason never meshed with Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson, and Sam Cassell, the team was still on track for a division title until a disastrous finish left them on the outside looking in.  

Their downfall has been well documented: a potent cocktail of injuries, bad chemistry, big egos, and bad luck.  The Bucks lost all six OT games in the New Year and went 1-8 in close games over the final month and a half, and were fittingly embarrassed in the final game of the season.  Needing a win to clinch the final playoff spot, the Bucks were demolished in Detroit by 34 points as Sam Cassell and Ray Allen scored just six points each.  Robinson was dealt the following summer, Allen would depart less than a season later, and all the mojo the Bucks had acquired in 2001 was gone.  OK, let's just move on...I'm getting annoyed just thinking about it.

So, what about the 08/09 Bucks?

On paper at least there's no obvious reason for the Bucks to collapse yet again.  The Bucks' decent record thus far has been more than deserved, as they've been outscoring opponents on average (expected winning percentage of .512), their schedule becomes far more favorable in 2009, and they've dealt with their share of injuries as well.  It's the latter which is also the biggest threat going forward.  Losing Bogut in particular would be difficult to manage, as evidenced by the 0-3 mark they had without him a month ago.  But they've also been getting substandard production from Mike Redd and Richard Jefferson, which hopefully has more to do with Redd's lingering ankle injury and Jefferson's acclimation to a new team/city than both players simply becoming decidedly average.  Neither player has hit 30 yet, so I'm hoping both come around soon, especially given the monster paychecks they're pulling in.  Jefferson at least defended well, and Redd has at times looked solid there as well.

But probably the biggest difference between this team and previous editions is Skiles.  Not only is he the Bucks' first proven coach since Karl, but he also has a history of improving his teams over the course of the season.  Ironically, Skiles lost his job in Chicago after a poor start to the 07/08 campaign, but slow starts and fast finishes were actually an annual occurrence during Skiles' tenure with the Bulls. 

• 06/07: 3-9 start, 46-24 finish, 49-33 total
• 05/06: 12-19 start, 29-22 finish, 41-41 total
• 04/05: 2-13 start, 45-22 finish, 47-35 total

I'm not particularly sure why those Bulls teams couldn't put it together from the start, which is also why I wouldn't conclude that the Bucks are destined to take the league by storm now that they've gotten their first 30 games out of the way.  Still, there might be something about the system that Skiles uses which makes it a little harder to pick up than most (Bulls fans, feel free to chime in here).  Hopefully that's the case, but I wouldn't bank on it.  At this stage, I'd gladly take 40 wins and one of the final playoff spots--which is what the Bucks are on pace for at the moment.  You've gotta start somewhere, right?

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Joe's video application only hints at his head-on-rim dunk

Head over to NBA.com and vote for Joe Alexander as the fourth and final contestant in the 2009 edition of the Sprite Slam Dunk Contest.  His NBA highlight reel is unfortunately pretty short at this point, but back at West Virginia he showed a pretty nice arsenal: from the foul line, alley-oops, the honey-dip, and of course that monster dunk on Stanley Robinson in the Big East Tourney.

Dwight Howard, Rudy Gay, and Nate Robinson (ugh, again?) are already in, which leaves Alexander competing with Rudy Fernandez and Russell Westbrook for the final spot.  Joe has the white American guy novelty factor going for him, but don't underestimate the power of Blazer Nation (and Spain for that matter).

Gery Woelfel wrote the other day that Alexander's been working on a dunk where he hits his head on the rim twice before dunking, though the video above only teases that one.  Hopefully someone gave Joe a helmet for Christmas or something.

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Yes, they do have Christmas in Australia, but that doesn't mean Andrew Bogut has to like it. Bogut dispensed his views regarding Christmas on his blog Sunday, which happened to be the day of the Winter Soltice:

"I’m not big on Christmas, Birthdays or New Years really. I think Christmas isn’t celebrated for the right reasons, but mainly for a money driving machine. A lot of children probably wouldn’t know what Christmas is about besides receiving cool presents and getting what ‘I’ want. I mean I don’t dislike it don’t get me wrong, but the whole decorating for Christmas and putting up a tree doesn’t really give me a thrill. I think I left it behind when I was about 12 and realized the truth about Santa and his Reindeers."

Don't get him wrong? Just about everything Bogut wrote is manifesto for those who think the Christmas magic left when Rudolph got busted for vagrancy. Maybe Bogues was in the locker room when the Energee! dancers were doing their Santa routine at the Bucks-Clippers game Saturday ....

There's more on Bogut's blog, about friends and family being more important than gifts, and plenty of Aussie comedy videos and other stuff he finds for his fans back home. It's really one of the better NBA player blogs out there, and he has a new post up already in which he reports that his dad feels the same way he does about X-mas. He also says that a "present we didn't expect" may be in the works this week to help the Bucks. (This turned out to be the arrival of exiled long range gunner Damon Jones, which I confess never crossed my mind as anything that would be considered a gift.)

I empathize with Bogut's negative feelings about X-mas, I do, but I've been imbued with enough holiday spirit this week to wonder what the Bucks might leave under the Christmas trees or 'round Hanukkah menorahs and Kwanzaa kinaras of Bucks fans everywhere. (A kinara's a candleholder, much like a menorah, and you wouldn't want to put gifts under either of those burning things).

Never let it be said that one can't find culture here ... or fire safety tips. But enough of that ... Let's get to those gifts ...

1) How about a win against a quality, winning opponent that isn't missing a key player or two?  The Bucks don't have one of these wins this season. I give you  Ball Don't Lie's NBA power rankings this week in which the Bucks were ranked 17th: "You beat the Clippers by a ton, at home. I'm ... proud of you?"  Oh, the truth hurts. ... So Tuesday night vs. the 17-12 Jazz was a great opportunity to beat a solid, winning team on the home court, right? Wrooong. The Jazz's hottest player, center Mehmet Okur, scratched with back spasms. Despite this fit of good fortune, the cold-shooting Bucks and Michael Redd nearly bricked their way out of the game until some solid Bucks D and point guard Luke Ridnour saved the day. After the game, Jazz coach Jerry Sloan said his team looked like they were playing "streetball."

A relatively healthy 15-11 Detroit team, with Antonio McDyess back in the fold, comes to the BC Saturday and the Bucks have three days off before the game. Allen Iverson is day-to-day with an injury suffered Tuesday against the Bulls but that's fine -- Iverson often plays better when he's hurt, as Bucks fans know too well (I'm supressing 2001 playoff flashbacks now). Detroit is 11-11, including a win vs. the Bucks in Detroit, since trading Chauncey Billups to Denver for the Answer. The AI record should be 12-11 after the Pistons play the OK City Thunder on Friday. Beating Detroit would qualify as the Bucks best win of the season. 

2) A bottle of Andrew Bogut's "magic pain pills." Bogut goes into excruciating detail on his blog about his ailing back and the "magic pain pills" that have allowed him to play the last four games. Seems a couple of his vertabrae are "stuck" and causing severe pain. He says he needs a wheelchair in the morning and feels like he's "a hundred years old." Ouch. But these magic pills do wonders: since Bogut started taking them, his free throw shooting is better than ever at 69.1%, and the Bucks have won three or four.

3) Some magic pills for Charlie Bell. Charlie, who played hurt through the 14 games that Michael Redd missed during his sloooww recovery from a high ankle sprain -- and then missed six games himself -- went down again Tuesday vs. the Jazz. This time it's a sore knee, just when it was beginning to look like Charlie was returning to his 2007 form. The Bucks could use some good health in general, though nobody around the NBA is going to throw them a pity party. Malik Allen, who had been starting at power forward, has missed the last eight games with a rib injury.

4) This is where I post the Sports Illustrated photo at left of Richard Jefferson and his Trinidadian supermodel wife, Teresa Lourenco, in hopes that you read this Bob Boozer Jinx post from last week (no, this is not a shallow attempt to spice up this post with a pic of a hot supermodel). R.J. has become somewhat of a forgotten man in Bucksland, except when fans notice that his box score line doesn't always look as good as some think it should (the warped analysis of a certain ESPN stat guy comes to mind). Stats are not R.J.'s game -- the intangibles are, and those are part and parcel to the attitude R.J. brought to the Bucks via the trade with the Nets last summer. There's no question coach Scott Skiles appreciates his forward -- he keeps R.J. on the floor more than any other Buck. As of this writing R.J. is 3rd in the NBA in minutes played and the Bucks chemistry on the floor looks better than it has in years. Plus, R.J.'s hitting the three.

5) More about Teresa Lourenco? It's the least I could do. But is there no style page in this town to take these burdensome supermodel responsibilities from the Bob Boozer Jinx? Maybe now that Packers season is winding down, our local culture vultures can get on the Lourenco beat, if she's around at all. A little gemutlichkeit has never killed a supermodel from Trinidad, has it?

6) A "rookie curb" for Luc Richard Mbah a Moute to hop instead of a "rookie wall" like the one Yi Jianlian hit last February. Early on this season, Journal Sentinel's Michael Hunt wrote that the defense played by the Bucks' Cameroonian prince was remniscent of the D Sidney Moncrief played in his rookie season (1979-80). That's colossal praise when you consider the NBA more or less invented the Defensive Player of the Year award for Moncrief. After an impressive start, the #37 pick in the draft became a fan favorite, then seemed worn down for a couple of weeks before last week picking it up against the Knicks, Clippers and Jazz. Mbah a Moute can guard three positions but has played most at power forward; he's contributing a solid 8.5 pts, 6.5 rebs per game ... All-Rookie honor roll so far.

7) Bucks first round pick at #8, Joe Alexander, remains a mystery. Joe's got some ups and can knock a shot down, but he looks lost on the court -- night and day compared to Mbah a Moute, who is so often in the right place at the right time. The Dalai Lama, who I found on my pilgrimage to Tibet, wasn't able to tell me why the Bucks drafted Joe, other than to say "maybe he's a good Joe" and went on to ask a lot of questions about Brett Favre. Maybe Santa knows, and some insight into why Bucks GM John Hammond drafted Joe will emerge over the holidays. 

Joe and the Bucks this week did crank up a campaign to vote Joe into the All-Star Game dunk contest. Joe says you gotta vote Joe and that he's going to beat the champ, Dwight Howard. That's not the draft explaination I was looking for from Santa, but here's Joe delivering his dunk contest hype: